MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, August 20.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies
It has been a rough stretch for Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo, who has posted a 6.27 ERA in his past 13 starts. However, his 3.83 fielding independent in that span points to positive regression. For the season, Luzardo has a 4.21 ERA with a 3.12 fielding independent, 10.2 strikeouts, and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo owns a 3.48 ERA this season, but his 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings is a career low, and his ERA on the road jumps to 4.92.
Picks: Phillies Moneyline -134 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies Moneyline -182 and Total 8.9)
1:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers
Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez has been one of the most consistent arms in the league this season, carrying a 3.06 ERA with just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. Tigers starter Charlie Morton has been better lately than his season ERA of 5.20 suggests, posting a 3.66 ERA across his last 17 appearances.
Picks: Astros Moneyline -125 and Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -133 and Total 7.9)
6:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Cardinals starter Andre Pallante has a 5.04 ERA with only 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings, allowing at least four runs in five of his past seven starts. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has struggled as well, posting a 6.31 ERA while allowing 12 total runs across his past three outings.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7)
7:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
Rangers expected starter Jacob deGrom was scratched, leaving the bullpen to shoulder the load. The Rangers’ bullpen ranks fifth in ERA at 3.50 and faces a Royals lineup that ranks last in run production at home with 3.5 runs per game. Royals starter Noah Cameron owns a 2.47 ERA, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 17 starts this season.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2)
8:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
It has been a brutal stretch for Rockies starter Tanner Gordon, who has allowed 27 runs over his past four starts and carries a 7.98 ERA with only 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings this season. On the other side, Shohei Ohtani has a 3.47 ERA with 12.3 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings, but he has yet to provide length—only once in nine starts has he gone beyond four innings. Fortunately, he is backed by an offense that ranks second in the league with more than 5.1 runs per game, facing a Rockies bullpen that ranks 29th with a 5.39 ERA.
Pick: Over 11.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 12.2)
