MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, August 23.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
7:05 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier is making his third start of the season, giving up three runs across eight innings in his first two starts. He has the backing of a bullpen that ranks ninth in ERA at 3.74. Orioles starting pitcher Dean Kremer owns a 3.97 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.3 walks allowed per nine innings. His ERA drops to 2.67 at home, but he’s supported by a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 4.66.
Pick: Astros Moneyline +112 (Greg’s Handicap Astros -112)
7:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has put together a solid season, posting a 3.18 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. However, he has noticeable home and road splits, with a 2.77 ERA at home compared to 3.70 on the road. He faces a Brewers lineup that ranks third in the league in scoring with 5.1 runs per game. Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has a 2.78 ERA, though his 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings are a career low, and he owns a 3.70 fielding independent with 3.3 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Brewers Moneyline -126 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -140 and Total 7.6)
7:15 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Newly acquired Braves starting pitcher Cal Quantrill looks to improve in Atlanta after struggling with the Miami Marlins, where he posted a 5.50 ERA with 6.7 strikeouts and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes has allowed a lot of contact but has kept the ball in the park, posting 7.2 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings with a 3.64 ERA.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap Mets -151)
8:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Nestor Cortes has struggled in his small sample of five starts, posting a 5.87 ERA with an 8.51 fielding independent, along with 3.5 home runs and 5.9 walks allowed per nine innings. Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow has had command issues with 4.4 walks per nine innings, which is a big reason he may be due for regression from his 3.12 ERA, as it is backed up by a 4.16 fielding independent. He does have the support of a lineup that leads the league in scoring with 5.2 runs per game.
Picks: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +118, Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Dodgers -1.5 +105 and Total 8.4)
9:35 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Angels
Cubs starting pitcher Cade Horton has been magnificent of late, allowing just two runs across his past six starts. Overall this season, he owns a 3.08 ERA with 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Angels starting pitcher Victor Mederos has given up six runs across nine innings in his two starts this season. He faces a Cubs lineup that has struggled badly since the All-Star Break, ranking last in the league with just under 3.7 runs per game over their past 32 games.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.8)
