MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, August 25.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider enters Monday in a funk, allowing 20 runs across 11 2/3 innings in his past three starts. Overall this season, he owns a 5.24 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera has been steadier, posting a 3.52 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 3.0 walks allowed per nine innings this season. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks seventh in ERA since June 1, while the Braves’ bullpen ranks 23rd in that span.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline +112 (Greg’s Handicap Marlins -113)
7:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez has been outstanding this season with a 2.46 ERA and 2.63 FIP, allowing just 0.6 home runs per nine innings. He’s held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his past 15 starts. Mets starter Kodai Senga has been equally sharp, posting a 2.58 ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed and holding opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 20 starts.
Pick: Phillies vs. Mets Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.3)
7:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Royals starter Noah Cameron has been steady, allowing two runs or fewer in 14 of his 18 starts this season while compiling a 2.53 ERA with just 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Kansas City’s offense has lagged behind, ranking 28th in scoring at 3.8 runs per game. The White Sox aren’t much better, ranking 27th at 3.9 runs per game. Starter Shane Smith owns a 4.12 ERA but has been solid of late, allowing two runs or fewer in four of his past five outings while keeping home runs to 1.1 per nine innings.
Pick: Royals vs. White Sox Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.1)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodríguez has struggled to a 5.40 ERA, allowing 1.6 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. Arizona’s bullpen hasn’t helped, ranking 26th in ERA at 4.73. They face a Brewers lineup that sits third in MLB in scoring at 5.1 runs per game. Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff has been dominant, allowing three runs or fewer in all eight of his starts this season, with a 2.47 ERA and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings despite some home run issues (1.4 per nine).
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +130 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -1.5 -109 and Total 8.4)
8:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Angels starter José Soriano has been at his best on the road, with a 2.89 ERA away from home compared to a 4.00 ERA overall. He’s allowed just four home runs across 74 2/3 road innings. Rangers starter Jacob deGrom owns a 2.76 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings, and he’s been even better at home, where his ERA dips to 2.11.
Picks: Rangers Run Line -1.5 +130 and Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rangers -1.5 +106 and Total 7.4)
9:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starter Bryce Miller has had a rough year, posting a 5.87 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings while also spending time on the injured list. However, he’s historically been much stronger at home, with a career 3.00 ERA compared to 4.86 on the road. Padres starter JP Sears has also struggled, putting up a 4.94 ERA while allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -122 (Greg’s Handicap Mariners -145)
