MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, August 26.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:35 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish is making his season debut after being limited to only eight starts last season. He enters having posted a 4.91 ERA in six minor league starts this season, while Lucas Giolito owns a 3.72 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 2.9 walks allowed per nine innings. However, over his past 13 starts, Giolito has been excellent with a 2.55 ERA and is backed by a bullpen whose 3.41 ERA ranks third in the league.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -109 (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -129)
6:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara owns a 6.04 ERA, allowing 14 total runs across his past four starts. He faces a Braves lineup that ranks third in the league in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.2 runs per game. Braves starter Hurston Waldrep, in a small sample of four appearances, has been excellent with just two runs allowed in 24 2/3 innings. That said, regression could be coming as he posted a 4.42 ERA with 4.9 walks per nine innings at the AAA level this season.
Picks: Braves Moneyline -113 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Braves -129 and Total 8.4)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians rookie Parker Messick dazzled in his MLB debut, allowing one run across 6 2/3 innings, but this is still just his second career start. At the minor league level this season, he allowed 3.8 walks per nine innings. Rays starter Shane Baz has struggled with a 5.22 ERA, 1.7 home runs, and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings, giving up at least four runs in each of his past four starts.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline -116 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -131 and Total 8.7)
7:07 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Twins starter Bailey Ober has struggled this season with a 5.05 ERA and career-worst marks of 7.3 strikeouts and 2.0 home runs allowed per nine innings. Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt owns a 4.18 ERA with 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings overall, but that improves to a 2.73 ERA and 1.0 home run per nine innings allowed at home. He’s supported by a lineup that leads the American League in home scoring at nearly 5.3 runs per game.
Picks: Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Blue Jays -1.5 +101 and Total 9.1)
7:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski has been shaky in his two starts since coming off the injured list, allowing eight runs across 5 1/3 innings. He’s supported by a lineup that ranks third in the league in scoring with 5.1 runs per game. Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has struggled with a 4.95 ERA, 7.2 strikeouts, and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. On the road, his numbers are even worse with a 6.50 ERA and nearly 2.6 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)
7:45 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starter Andre Pallante owns a 5.17 ERA with 3.2 walks and 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings, allowing at least four runs in each of his past three starts. Pirates starter Mitch Keller has also struggled, giving up at least five runs in three of his past four outings. For his career, Keller has a 5.09 ERA compared to a 4.06 ERA at home.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.3)
9:45 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starter Justin Verlander has not looked like his vintage self this season, with a 4.64 ERA and 12 runs allowed in his past three starts across 16 1/3 innings. Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has enjoyed a career renaissance, posting a 2.61 ERA with just 0.8 home runs and 2.0 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -126 (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -149)
