MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, August 28.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:05 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet finds himself in the American League Cy Young hunt with a 2.38 ERA, allowing just 0.8 home runs and striking out 11.2 batters per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Cade Povich is having a rough year, posting a 5.13 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings. He’s been far worse at home with a 6.22 ERA and nearly two home runs allowed per nine innings, backed by a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 4.69. The Red Sox bullpen, by contrast, ranks third at 3.41.
Picks: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 +100 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -1.5 -115 and Total 8.3)
2:10 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Diamondbacks expected starter Nabil Crismatt followed an opener in his last outing and, in his two appearances with Arizona, has allowed just one run in nine innings. However, he’s issued four walks and, at the minor league level, did not generate many swings and misses, posting a 3.96 ERA with 6.2 strikeouts and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s supported by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 4.77. Brewers starter Jose Quintana is likely due for regression on his 3.32 ERA, given his 4.78 fielding independent pitching (FIP) with 3.2 walks and 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces an Arizona lineup that ranks fifth in scoring at just under five runs per game, while Milwaukee sits third at 5.1 runs per game.
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +130 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 +105 and Total 9.3)
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has had a rough season, posting a 5.31 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings. His ERA improves to 4.56 away from Coors Field. He faces an Astros lineup that ranks last in the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break, averaging fewer than four runs per game. Meanwhile, the Rockies are last in the league in both road on-base percentage and road scoring, producing less than three runs per game. They’ll face Astros starter Jason Alexander, who has been solid since joining Houston with a 2.72 ERA and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings across eight appearances.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
2:15 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft began the season in the bullpen but has been effective in every role, posting a 2.70 ERA with just one home run allowed across 46 2/3 innings this season. He’s given up only two runs in 13 2/3 innings over his last three starts. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has pitched to a lot of contact, posting a 5.17 ERA with 5.8 strikeouts and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. He does, however, get to face a Pirates lineup that ranks last in the league in scoring, averaging 3.6 runs per game overall and fewer than 3.3 runs per game away from home.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
