MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, August 29.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Reds starting pitcher Zack Littell has a 3.62 ERA this season with 1.6 home runs and 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA with the Tampa Bay Rays was 3.58 before being traded, but it has risen to 3.92 with the Reds. However, his home run rate has improved, dropping from 1.8 per nine innings in Tampa Bay to 0.9 with Cincinnati. Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore has struggled in August, allowing at least three runs in all five of his starts this month. He owns a 4.27 ERA with seven strikeouts per nine innings this season and is backed by a lineup tied for last in runs per game since the All-Star break (3.8), alongside the Cubs.
Picks: Reds Moneyline -117 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -133 and Total 9.2)
6:45 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals
Rays starting pitcher Adrian Houser has seen a sharp decline since being traded from the White Sox. With Chicago, he posted a 2.10 ERA with 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, but with Tampa Bay, that has ballooned to a 5.32 ERA and 1.2 home runs allowed across four starts. Nationals starter Mitchell Parker has been even worse, posting a 12.00 ERA in five August starts and a 6.05 ERA overall this season. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks dead last in ERA at 5.60.
Picks: Rays Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -1.5 +108 and Total 9.6)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suárez has been excellent at limiting hard contact, recording a 3.07 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 2.1 walks allowed per nine innings. Braves starter Bryce Elder has endured a nightmare season, posting a 6.12 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. Across his past 12 starts, his ERA is an ugly 8.06. He faces a Phillies lineup averaging 5.3 runs per game at home, third-best in MLB.
Picks: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -1.5 -121 and Total 9.3)
7:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Mets starter Jonah Tong makes his MLB debut after dominating at the lower levels this season, posting a 1.43 ERA with 14.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Marlins starter Eury Pérez enters with a 3.44 ERA, 8.9 strikeouts, and 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.6)
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s a reunion of sorts, as former White Sox pitcher Carlos Rodón has thrived with the Yankees, recording a 3.24 ERA with 1.1 home runs allowed and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 26th in scoring at 3.9 runs per game. White Sox starter Yoendrys Gómez began the season in the Yankees system before moving to Chicago. He had a 2.12 ERA with 12.3 strikeouts per nine in Triple-A Charlotte before being called up. In three MLB starts, Gómez has allowed five runs (four earned) in 14 2/3 innings.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1)
8:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starter Chris Paddack owns a 4.98 ERA with 1.5 home runs allowed and 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s backed by a bullpen with a 4.46 ERA since June 1, ranking 24th in MLB. The Royals offense is hot, averaging 5.3 runs per game since the All-Star break (8th in MLB). Royals starter Seth Lugo has hit a rough patch, allowing at least six runs in three of his past four outings. He holds a 3.99 ERA overall with a 5.12 FIP, 1.7 home runs, and 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings, though he’s been better at home (3.28 ERA).
Picks: Royals Moneyline -115 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -129 and Total 9.2)
San Diego Padres vs. Minnesota Twins
Padres starter Nestor Cortes has been solid since coming over from Milwaukee, posting a 3.00 ERA in four starts, though his 5.41 FIP with 1.7 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine suggests regression. He’s supported by the best bullpen in baseball (3.01 ERA). The Twins bullpen, by contrast, ranks 22nd with a 4.24 ERA. Minnesota starter Zebby Matthews enters with a 5.30 ERA, 1.5 home runs, and 3.1 walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -137)
8:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
Cubs rookie Cade Horton has been excellent, posting a 2.88 ERA with 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings and allowing just two total runs across his past seven starts. He faces a Rockies offense that ranks 29th in run production at 3.7 runs per game. The Cubs offense has also slumped, averaging only 3.8 runs per game since the All-Star break, second-lowest in MLB. Rockies starter Germán Márquez makes his first start since July 20. He owns a 5.67 ERA, but his 4.58 FIP with 1.2 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings points to potential positive regression.
Pick: Under 11.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 10.9)
10:05 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
A’s starter Jeffrey Springs has a career-low strikeout rate (7.2 per nine) with a 4.15 ERA, 4.76 FIP, and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. At home, those numbers rise to a 4.73 ERA and 1.9 home runs allowed. Rangers starter Jack Leiter owns a 3.81 ERA but struggles with command, walking 4.4 per nine for a 4.36 FIP. He’s backed by a Texas lineup that ranks second in the AL in scoring since July, averaging nearly 5.4 runs per game.
Picks: Rangers Moneyline +117 and Over 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -117 and Total 10.3)
