MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, August 3.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:37 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo has a 3.03 ERA, but a concerning 4.47 fielding independent pitching (FIP), with 7.9 strikeouts and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has a 4.24 ERA and a 4.01 FIP, with 8.9 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine innings. He’s supported by a lineup that entered the series leading the American League in home scoring with 5.35 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -132 and Over 8 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -152, Total 8.7)
1:40 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo owns a 4.14 ERA but has struggled with command, issuing five walks and recording 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Twins starting pitcher Jose Urena has a 5.40 ERA with 2.5 home runs and just 4.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s now pitching for his fourth team in 2025 and is backed by a bullpen that was stripped at the trade deadline and ranks 23rd in ERA at 4.37.
Pick: Guardians Run Line -1.5 +130 and Over 8 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -1.5 +112, Total 8.8)
4:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Cardinals starter Andre Pallante is pitching to a lot of contact, with a 4.62 ERA and just 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s backed by a lineup that ranks 29th in runs scored since the beginning of July. Padres starter Dylan Cease is piling up strikeouts with 11.6 per nine innings, but his 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks allowed per nine have hurt him, contributing to a 4.79 ERA. Still, his 3.65 FIP suggests positive regression is coming, and he’s supported by the league’s top bullpen with a 2.96 ERA.
7:00 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tigers starter Charlie Morton makes his first start since being traded from the Orioles. He has a 5.42 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 4.3 walks allowed per nine innings. He’ll face a Phillies lineup that ranks third in the National League in home scoring with 5.1 runs per game. Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez has had an excellent season, posting a 2.55 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and only 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. However, he faces a Detroit lineup that ranks sixth in road scoring with over 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Over 8 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
