MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, August 30.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
3:07 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester has put together a nice year, though his 11–2 record may be a bit misleading as he pitches to a lot of contact with 7.3 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. He carries a 3.44 ERA with a 4.36 fielding independent but is supported by a lineup that leads the league in road scoring at 5.6 runs per game. Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman owns a 3.81 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.5 walks allowed per nine innings, backed by a lineup that leads the American League in home scoring with 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers vs. Blue Jays Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.8)
4:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin has had a rough season with a 5.40 ERA, allowing 1.8 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings while being backed by a bullpen that ranks last in ERA at 5.60. Rays starter Ryan Pepiot is fortunate his ERA isn’t higher than its current 3.82, as he has a 4.52 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Rays vs. Nationals Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.3)
4:10 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Dustin May has had a shaky season between his time in Boston and with the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 4.79 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings allowed. Still, he has given up three runs or fewer in three of his first four Red Sox starts. He faces a Pirates lineup that ranks last in scoring at 3.6 runs per game. The Red Sox offense ranks fifth with just under five runs per game and gets to face Johan Oviedo, who is making just his fourth start of the season. Oviedo has allowed four runs in only 10 innings pitched, and his 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings should regress closer to his career rate of eight strikeouts per nine.
Pick: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 +115 (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -1.5 -111)
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher David Peterson has been excellent at limiting hard contact, posting a 3.18 ERA with 8.1 strikeouts, 3.3 walks, and just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera owns a 3.32 ERA with 0.9 home runs allowed and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s supported by a bullpen that ranks 12th in ERA since June 1 at 3.86, while the Mets bullpen ranks 26th in that span with a 4.67 ERA.
Picks: Marlins Moneyline +165 and Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Marlins +146 and Total 7.9)
6:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott owns a 2.64 ERA with one home run and 2.4 walks allowed per nine innings. He’s given up two earned runs or fewer in 17 of his 23 starts this season. Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy seems due for positive regression on his 4.43 ERA, as he allows only 0.9 home runs and 1.3 walks per nine innings for a 3.66 fielding independent, despite just 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Since the All-Star break, the Cardinals rank 29th in run production at 3.8 runs per game.
Picks: Reds Moneyline -140 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Reds -173 and Total 8.4)
7:15 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians
Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has been a strikeout machine with 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings, but he carries a 3.69 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine. On the road, that ERA balloons to 6.00 with 2.1 home runs allowed per nine. Still, the Mariners offense ranks second in the American League in road scoring with nearly five runs per game. Guardians starter Gavin Williams has a 3.35 ERA, but his 4.60 fielding independent points to regression, as he allows 1.3 home runs and 4.7 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Mariners vs. Guardians Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.3)
8:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
The Cubs entered this series last in post–All-Star break scoring at 3.8 runs per game, but overall rank third in road scoring this season with more than five runs per game. They face Rockies starter McCade Brown, making his second career start after never pitching above AA. Brown gave up four runs in 3 2/3 innings in his MLB debut against Pittsburgh and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA at 5.25. Cubs pitcher Javier Assad is making his fourth start of the season with a 3.88 ERA, a 4.98 fielding independent, 5.8 strikeouts, and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Picks: Cubs Run Line -1.5 -130 and Over 11.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -1.5 -157 and Total 11.8)
