MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, August 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins
While Astros starting pitcher Jason Alexander has a 7.36 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 4.98 walks per nine innings overall this season, he has been much better in an Astros uniform than he was with the Athletics, posting a 4.12 ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed for Houston. Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara owns a 6.36 ERA and has allowed at least four runs in four of his past six starts.
Picks: Astros Moneyline -105 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -131 and Total 8.7)
6:45 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo appears due for some positive regression with a 4.31 ERA, as he holds a 2.98 fielding independent pitching (FIP) along with 10.4 strikeouts and just 0.6 home runs per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Cade Povich is making his first MLB start since June 15. He has a 5.15 ERA but may also be due for better results with a 4.12 FIP and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he’s supported by a lineup that averages just 3.6 runs per game on the road—last in the American League.
Picks: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +105 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -1.5 -112 and Total 8.8)
7:15 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester owns a 3.27 ERA but a 3.93 FIP, with 7.5 strikeouts and 3.0 walks per nine innings. He’s backed by a Brewers lineup that leads the league in road scoring at 5.7 runs per game. They face Braves starter Erick Fedde, who has allowed at least three runs in six straight starts and owns a 5.33 ERA with 5.6 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Brewers Moneyline -130 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -152 and Total 9.6)
9:38 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Newly acquired Rays starter Adrian Houser is having a career year, posting a 2.10 ERA, thanks largely to his ability to limit hard contact—allowing just 0.4 home runs per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks 26th in home on-base percentage. On the other side, Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has a 3.30 ERA, but a 4.08 FIP with 3.8 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Rays Moneyline +113 (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -124)
9:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
While the Diamondbacks did trade away several key pieces at the deadline, this is still a potent offense that ranks seventh in the league with over 4.8 runs per game. They’ll face Padres starter JP Sears, who has a 4.95 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt owns a 5.11 ERA overall, but that improves to 3.68 at home with just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Picks: Diamondbacks Moneyline +120 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -103 and Total 9.1)
10:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Cardinals starter Sonny Gray has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.84 ERA with over 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow owns a 3.38 ERA, but a 4.58 FIP with 1.6 home runs and 4.7 walks per nine innings. He’s backed by a Dodgers lineup averaging a league-best 5.8 runs per game.
Picks: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +115 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 +103 and Total 8.6)
