MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, August 5.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins
Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti makes his first start since April and just his third overall this season due to injuries. Since his rookie season in 2024, he’s posted a lifetime 4.60 ERA with a 4.21 fielding independent and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Marlins starting pitcher Cal Quantrill owns a 4.79 ERA this season with only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings and is backed by a lineup that ranks 27th in offensive production at home with fewer than 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -107 (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -134)
6:45 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has turned things around from a season ago, when he had a 7.10 ERA and allowed 2.6 home runs per nine innings. This season, he’s posted a 3.82 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings. He faces an Orioles lineup that ranks last in the American League in road scoring with fewer than 3.6 runs per game. Orioles starter Dean Kremer has a 4.24 ERA and 4.04 fielding independent, allowing 1.2 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Orioles vs. Phillies Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.9)
7:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Brewers starter Freddy Peralta might be due for some regression from his 3.08 ERA, as his 3.81 fielding independent suggests. He’s posting a career-low 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings along with 3.3 walks per nine. Braves starter Joey Wentz has a 5.02 ERA this season across the three teams he’s pitched for, with 3.3 walks per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that leads the league in road scoring at 5.8 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers vs. Braves Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.9)
9:38 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starter Jose Soriano has some of the biggest home-road splits in the league, with a 3.65 ERA and 4.1 walks per nine innings overall. His ERA drops to 2.48 on the road but jumps to 4.92 at home. He’s supported by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 4.97. Rays starter Ryan Pepiot enters with a 3.80 ERA and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 10th in ERA at 3.79.
Pick: Rays Moneyline +108 (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -118)
9:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Padres starter Yu Darvish has not looked like himself this season, with a 6.46 ERA, 6.8 strikeouts, and 3.4 walks per nine innings. While the Padres have the best bullpen ERA in baseball, Darvish has gone five innings or fewer in four of his five starts. Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson has a 3.20 ERA, allowing just 0.9 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings. Despite selling at the trade deadline, Arizona still ranks sixth in the league in scoring with over 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline +118 (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks +107)
10:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan owns a 3.60 ERA with 9.4 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings. He’s supported by a bullpen ranked 19th in ERA at 4.18. The Dodgers lead the league in home scoring with 5.8 runs per game and face a pitch-to-contact arm in Miles Mikolas, who has a 4.83 ERA, allowing 1.5 home runs and recording just 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Dodgers Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.6)
