MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, August 8.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns enters with a 6.04 ERA, but his 2.90 fielding independent and 14.9 strikeouts per nine innings suggest he’s due for positive regression. He has allowed three runs or fewer in three of his past four starts in which he’s gone more than one inning. Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has a 3.89 ERA but has allowed at least three runs in three straight starts. He’s supported by a Pirates lineup that ranks last in scoring with 3.5 runs per game.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +100 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -108)
7:15 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has struggled mightily, posting a 6.03 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He has allowed 29 total runs, 28 of them earned, in his past six starts. Marlins starting pitcher Edward Cabrera has been solid with a 3.24 ERA and just one home run per nine innings allowed. He’s backed by a lineup that ranks fifth in road scoring at 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -114 (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -125)
8:05 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher Merrill Kelly owns a 3.22 ERA with only 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Phillies lineup that averages 5.2 runs per game at home but just 4.25 runs on the road. Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez has been brilliant, posting a 2.40 ERA with 0.6 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings allowed, but he’s supported by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.40. The Rangers bullpen ERA of 3.31 is second in the league.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline +115 (Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -102)
9:40 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres
Padres pitcher Nick Pivetta has been at his best at home this season, posting a 1.99 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings compared to a 3.67 ERA on the road with 1.4 home runs per nine innings. However, he faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks fifth in offense with nearly five runs per game. The Padres rank 24th with just over 4.1 runs per game, which benefits Red Sox starting pitcher Walker Buehler. Despite a rough year with a 5.74 ERA and 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, Buehler is backed by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.38.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline +168 and Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox +150, Total 7.7)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has a 2.81 ERA with 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he’ll face a Mariners lineup that’s no longer the light-hitting group from earlier this season. The additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez last week boost an offense averaging 3.9 runs per game at home. Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo has been at his best at home, with a 3.22 ERA overall and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed, dropping to a 2.29 ERA at home.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -124 (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -148)
10:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer carries a 4.39 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed and has given up at least three runs in three of his past four starts. Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw has a 3.29 ERA, but his strikeouts are at a career low with just 5.9 per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that leads the league in home scoring with 5.8 runs per game.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.4)
