MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, July 1.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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7:05 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz has had issues all season long, posting a 4.37 ERA and 4.52 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings, but he’s supported by a lineup that ranks sixth in scoring with 4.8 runs per game. Athletics starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs has a 4.30 ERA with a 4.58 fielding independent, 1.4 home runs, and 3.3 walks per nine innings, and is backed up by a bullpen whose 5.93 ERA ranks last in the league.
Pick: Athletics vs. Rays Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.3)
8:05 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
While the Rangers’ offense is averaging just 3.5 runs per game at home this season—second-worst in the league—they get to face Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young, who has a 7.11 ERA in three starts and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 24th with a 4.54 ERA. Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom owns a 2.08 ERA with two runs or fewer allowed in 13 straight starts, but may be due for regression with a 3.06 fielding independent.
Picks: Rangers Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -1.5 -106 and Total 7.6)
8:40 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies
Astros starting pitcher Colton Gordon has a 3.98 ERA with 8.4 strikeouts and just 1.1 walks per nine innings, and he faces a Rockies lineup whose 4.1 runs per game at home ranks 21st in the league. Rockies starting pitcher Chase Dollander has a 6.06 ERA with two home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings overall this season, and that balloons to an 8.54 ERA with over 2.7 home runs per nine innings allowed at home.
Picks: Astros Run Line -1.5 -115 and Over 11.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros -1.5 -158 and Total 12.2)
9:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Giants starting pitcher Hayden Birdsong has seen his ERA rise to 4.13 with at least three runs allowed in each of his past three starts, but he’s backed by a bullpen whose 2.91 ERA leads the league. The Diamondbacks, by contrast, are 28th in bullpen ERA at 5.31. Arizona starter Zac Gallen has a 5.75 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, and his ERA jumps to 6.29 at home.
Pick: Giants Moneyline +120 (Greg’s Handicap: Giants -104)
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher Emerson Hancock owns a 5.30 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed, but has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts and three runs or fewer in 10 of his past 12. He faces a Royals lineup that ranks last in the league in scoring with just 3.3 runs per game. Royals starter Michael Lorenzen has a 4.91 ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings, but is supported by a bullpen whose 3.55 ERA ranks seventh in the league.
Picks: Mariners Moneyline -130 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -146 and Total 7.3)
