MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, July 11.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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7:05 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Yankees
The Cubs have Chris Flexen listed as their projected starting pitcher, which should lead to a bullpen game. Flexen has pitched more than 3 2/3 innings just once this season, but he owns a 0.83 ERA, and the Cubs’ team ERA since May 1 is the best in baseball at 2.66—0.60 runs better than any other team in the league during that span. Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodón enters with a 3.30 ERA but has allowed at least three runs in four of his past six starts. He faces a Cubs lineup that leads the league in runs per game.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline +165 (Greg’s Handicap: Cubs +148)
7:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Rockies have 58 losses by two or more runs this season—more than any other National League team has total losses. Starting pitcher Germán Márquez is giving up a lot of contact with 11.8 hits allowed per nine innings and a 5.84 ERA. Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns is making his fourth career MLB start and just his second start at home. In that home outing, he allowed three runs in five innings to the Yankees. Now he faces a Rockies team whose 3.0 runs per game on the road is the second-fewest in the league.
Pick: Reds Run Line -1.5 -110 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -1.5 -128)
8:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals
The Mets are coming off a doubleheader on Thursday, and starting pitcher Kodai Senga is making his first start since June 12. While he has a microscopic 1.47 ERA, his 3.8 walks per nine innings and 3.18 fielding independent pitching suggest regression. Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha owns a 3.83 ERA overall this season and has allowed three or more runs in four of his past five starts, but he’s been far more effective at home, posting a 2.82 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Royals Moneyline +125 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -102 and Total 7.3)
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Nationals starting pitcher Mitchell Parker has a 4.72 ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed, but he’s been roughed up lately—allowing at least three runs in 11 of his past 14 starts. He’s backed by a bullpen with a league-worst 5.73 ERA. However, the Nationals’ offense ranks ninth in runs per game on the road with 4.9. Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester is pitching to a lot of contact, posting a 3.59 ERA with 7.1 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.2)
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. has had command issues this season, with a 5.82 ERA, 1.9 home runs, and 5.6 walks per nine innings. Still, he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his past eight starts. Rangers starter Jack Leiter owns a 4.21 ERA with 4.1 walks per nine innings. While Texas ranks 25th in the league in scoring overall, their 6.5 runs per game to start July rank fifth in the league.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.1)
8:15 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Braves entered Thursday night just 16-29 on the road this season. Starting pitcher Grant Holmes owns a solid 3.44 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but he’s allowing 1.3 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings, leading to a 4.22 fielding independent pitching mark. Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore has arguably been better than his 3.70 ERA suggests, allowing just 0.7 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings. He’s held opponents to two runs or fewer in each of his past four starts.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -104 (Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -134)
