MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, July 12.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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4:05 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Marlins starting pitcher Jansen Junk has been a treasure for Miami this season, posting a 3.12 ERA and a 2.00 fielding independent with just one home run and four walks allowed across 43 1/3 innings. Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers faces the team that traded him around this time last season and enters with a 1.57 ERA and only one home run allowed over 28 2/3 innings.
Picks: Marlins Moneyline +140 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins +131 and Total 8.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Shohei Ohtani has allowed just one run in four starts this season for the Dodgers, but he has not pitched more than two innings in any of those outings. He is backed by a bullpen whose 4.44 ERA ranked 24th in the league entering Friday. The Giants, by contrast, lead the league with a 3.17 bullpen ERA. Giants starter Landen Roupp owns a 3.39 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings overall and a 1.85 ERA with no home runs allowed at home.
Picks: Giants Moneyline +130 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Giants +116 and Total 8.3)
4:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Rockies entered Friday with 58 multi-run losses this season—more than any other National League team has total losses. They send Bradley Blalock to the mound, who has a 12.94 ERA in five appearances this season. Reds starter Brady Singer has a 4.32 ERA but has settled in after a rough start, allowing two earned runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts. He’ll face a Rockies team averaging just three runs per game away from home, 29th in the league.
Picks: Reds Run Line -1.5 -118 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -1.5 -148 and Total 9.4)
New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starter Michael Lorenzen owns a 4.61 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings, but that improves to a 3.79 ERA at home. He’s supported by a bullpen with a 3.50 ERA, ranking sixth in the league. Mets starter Frankie Montas has a 6.14 ERA in three starts this season but faces a Royals lineup averaging just three runs per game at home—worst in the league.
Picks: Royals +113 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals +104 and Total 8.7)
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Woodruff was exceptional in his first start of the season for the Brewers, tossing six shutout innings against the Marlins. However, this will be just his second start since mid-2023. He’ll face a Nationals lineup that ranks ninth in the league with 4.8 runs per game away from home.
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 -117 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 -127 and Total 8.6)
7:35 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
The Rangers entered Friday ranked 25th in scoring with four runs per game, but they’ve found their stroke in July, averaging seven runs in their first nine games this month. Starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 15 straight starts, though his 3.19 fielding independent compared to a 2.28 ERA suggests regression may be coming. Astros starter Framber Valdez owns a 2.90 ERA with just 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Astros Moneyline -123 and Over 6.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -135 and Total 7.2)
9:38 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Angels
Both teams have struggled with bullpen performance—the Diamondbacks rank 27th in bullpen ERA at 4.95, and the Angels rank 28th at 5.11. Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi may be due for regression with a 3.02 ERA but a 3.86 fielding independent due to four walks per nine innings. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen has struggled to a 5.15 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine, but he’s backed by an Arizona lineup scoring 5.1 runs per game—fourth in the league.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1)
