MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, July 18.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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2:20 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea has a 3.91 ERA but has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. He’s backed by a bullpen with a 3.54 ERA, ranking sixth in the league. The Red Sox bullpen is even better, ranking fifth with a 3.44 ERA. Starting pitcher Lucas Giolito has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his past nine starts, supplying a 1.90 ERA over that stretch.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Cubs Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.9)
6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates rank last in the league in scoring with fewer than 3.4 runs per game, but starting pitcher Bailey Falter has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his past 13 starts. He’ll face a White Sox lineup that ranks 28th in road scoring with 3.1 runs per game. Chicago gives the ball to Jonathan Cannon, who has a 4.44 ERA but has held opponents to two runs or fewer in three straight outings.
Pick: White Sox vs. Pirates Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets
Mets starter Sean Manaea makes just his second start of the season after giving up five hits in 3 1/3 innings in his season debut against the Royals just before the All-Star Break. The Mets bullpen hasn’t helped much, with a 5.19 ERA since June 1—27th in the league. Reds starter Nick Lodolo has a 3.38 ERA and a 4.02 FIP, with career-low strikeout and home run rates (8.1 K/9 and 1.3 HR/9).
Pick: Reds vs. Mets Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
7:07 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Giants starter Justin Verlander is still looking for his first win of the season, holding a 4.70 ERA and allowing at least three runs in four of his past five starts. Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt owns a 4.12 ERA overall, but he’s been much better at home with a 2.88 ERA, 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings, and only 0.8 home runs allowed per nine. The Blue Jays offense is second in the AL in home scoring, averaging over 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -130 (Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -147)
7:10 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Slade Cecconi is finding his groove, allowing three runs or fewer in seven straight starts—and two runs or fewer in six of them. Meanwhile, A’s starter JP Sears has struggled with a 4.74 ERA and 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Oakland’s bullpen has been a disaster with a league-worst 5.50 ERA in the AL.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -126 (Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -156)
7:35 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Charlie Morton has pitched better recently, with three runs or fewer allowed in each of his past five starts. Still, he carries a 5.18 ERA with 4.1 walks per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen ranked 26th in ERA (4.63). Rays starter Taj Bradley has a 4.60 ERA with 3.5 walks per nine, and the Rays offense ranks ninth in the league with over 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -117 (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -141)
8:05 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Tigers starter Reese Olson has been excellent at limiting hard contact, posting a 2.95 ERA and just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. The Rangers may be scoring over 6.5 runs per game in July, but overall they rank 26th in home scoring at under 3.8 runs per game. Texas starter Patrick Corbin owns a 4.15 ERA and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine, though that ERA drops to 3.79 at home with less than one home run allowed per nine.
Picks: Tigers Moneyline -115 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicaps: Tigers -137 and Total 8.2)
8:40 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have the league’s worst overall ERA, and starter Kyle Freeland is contributing to that with a 5.44 ERA and at least three runs allowed in four straight games. Twins starter Chris Paddack went into the All-Star Break with a 4.95 ERA and has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts. He’ll get a softer matchup against a Rockies offense that ranks 27th overall in scoring at 3.5 runs per game—though that does rise to 4.1 at home.
Picks: Twins Run Line -1.5 (-105) and Over 10.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicaps: Twins -148 and Total 11.2)
