MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, July 20.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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12:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has outperformed expectations this season. He has a 1.53 ERA and a 2.57 fielding independent with only one home run allowed in his six starts this season, but after having an ERA of 4.09 or higher each of the past three seasons, he might not be able to keep this up. Rays starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot owns a 3.38 ERA and faces an Orioles lineup that ranks 27th in runs per game on the road, with 3.6 runs per game. The Orioles bullpen is 25th with a 4.70 ERA.
MLB Picks: Rays Moneyline -117 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rays -134 and Total 9.2)
1:35 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Angels starting pitcher Jose Soriano has some of the biggest home and road splits in the league. He is posting a 3.90 ERA with 4.4 walks per nine innings overall this season. On the road, his ERA drops to 2.47 with 3.6 walks per nine innings. Soriano has yet to allow a home run in 67 innings on the road this season. Ranger Suarez has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his past 12 starts, posting a 1.46 ERA in this span.
MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels vs. Philadelphia Phillies Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.2)
New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes owns a 3.77 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine innings. He faces a Yankees lineup that leads the American League in scoring with over 5.2 runs per game. Yankees starting pitcher Marcus Stroman has a 6.66 ERA in six starts overall this season, but has allowed three runs or fewer in all three of his starts since coming off the injured list. Stroman faces a Braves lineup that is 23rd in run creation with under 4.1 runs per game.
MLB Pick: Yankees Moneyline +115 (Greg’s Handicap Yankees -113)
3:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher German Marquez has a 5.57 ERA with 11.5 hits per nine innings allowed overall this season and is getting only five strikeouts per nine innings at home. Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan has a 2.72 ERA overall this season, but has always struggled with allowing home runs on the road. He’s giving up over 1.5 home runs per nine innings on the road for his career with a lifetime 3.82 road ERA. Ryan is backed up by a Twins bullpen whose 5.44 ERA since June 1 is 28th in the league. The Rockies’ 5.81 ERA in that span ranks 29th.
MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins vs. Colorado Rockies Over 11 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 11.7)
4:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Brewers lead the league in road scoring with nearly 5.4 runs per game. They send starting pitcher Jose Quintana to the mound, who has a solid 3.28 ERA, but a 4.36 fielding independent with 6.1 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings. Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw has a 3.38 ERA but a 4.19 fielding independent with 6.2 strikeouts and 2.7 walks per nine innings. He is backed up by a lineup who leads the league in scoring at home with over 5.8 runs per game, but a bullpen that is 23rd in ERA at 4.37.
MLB Picks: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Dodgers -1.5 -102 and Total 9.6)
