MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, July 24.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
Orioles starting pitcher Charlie Morton had a 5.58 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings this season. His big issues come on the road, where he posts a 6.81 ERA with nearly 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Logan Allen enters having allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts with a 4.07 ERA overall this season. He faces an Orioles lineup whose less than 3.7 runs per game on the road ranks 27th in the league.
MLB Picks: Guardians Moneyline -113 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -126 and Total 8.7)
6:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
The Blue Jays have the largest runs per game differential at home compared to on the road of any team in the American League. They average 5.3 runs per game at home and 3.85 runs per game away from home. The Blue Jays face starting pitcher Reese Olson, who has a 2.71 ERA with only 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. Toronto’s starting pitcher Eric Lauer has experienced a career renaissance with a 2.80 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen whose 3.56 ERA ranks sixth in the league.
MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.3)
7:45 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish has not been sharp since coming off of the injured list, making three starts with a 6.08 ERA with 5.4 strikeouts to 4.7 walks per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray has been a completely different pitcher at home versus away from home, posting a 5.84 ERA on the road with 1.6 home runs per nine innings compared to a 2.84 ERA at home with 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings.
MLB Pick: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.6)
8:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Jason Alexander ironically started the season with the Athletics and allowed 13 runs in six innings with them before landing with the Astros. With Houston, he has allowed two earned runs in nine innings at the MLB level. At AAA for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys, he owns a 1.69 ERA in eight appearances. Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino has a 3.13 ERA on the road this season, but enters having surrendered at least five runs in four of his past five starts. He is supported by a bullpen whose 5.50 ERA entering Wednesday night ranked 29th in the league.
MLB Picks: Astros Moneyline -124 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros -148 and Total 8.9)
9:38 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has a 3.13 ERA but a 3.90 fielding independent. His command has been a bit all over the place with four walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Mariners lineup that leads the American League with 5.4 runs per game on the road. Mariners starting pitcher Logan Evans owns a 3.81 ERA in his 10 starts this season. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks 26th in on-base percentage at home.
MLB Pick: Mariners Moneyline +105 (Greg’s Handicap Mariners -103)
