MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, July 26.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Top MLB Resources:
6:40 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott owns a 2.13 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings, allowing two runs or fewer in 14 of his 17 starts this season. Rays starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot has a 3.59 ERA, but has allowed at least four runs in three of his past five starts and has a 4.46 fielding independent with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Reds Moneyline -115 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -135 and Total 8.8)
7:05 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Texas Rangers
While Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker has improved of late, he still owns a 5.66 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, despite allowing two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has a 3.81 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and 4.2 walks per nine innings and faces a Rangers lineup that ranks 26th in home scoring with just 3.75 runs per game.
Pick: Braves Moneyline +110 (Greg’s Handicap: Braves -104)
Colorado Rockies vs. Baltimore Orioles
Rockies starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela has been hit hard this season, posting a 6.41 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. He also doesn’t get much help from the offense, with the Rockies ranking 29th in road scoring at under three runs per game. Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has been lights out, with a 1.74 ERA and just two home runs allowed across 41 2/3 innings in his seven starts.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.7)
7:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Minnesota Twins
Nationals starting pitcher Mitchell Parker has allowed at least three runs in four of his past five starts. On the season, he has a 5.00 ERA with 5.8 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings, and is backed by a bullpen that ranks last in the league with a 5.74 ERA. Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan owns a 2.62 ERA with just one home run allowed per nine innings but faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 10th in the league in road scoring at 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
7:15 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore appears due for positive regression on his 4.13 ERA, supported by a 3.51 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and two walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Padres lineup averaging just 3.9 runs per game on the road, which ranks 26th in the league. Padres starter Randy Vasquez has a 3.73 ERA that’s due to rise, given his 5.40 fielding independent, but he’s aided by a Padres bullpen that leads the league with a 3.11 ERA.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.8)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals (Game 2 of Doubleheader)
Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic has been consistent this season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 17 of his 19 starts, with a 2.37 ERA and just 0.5 home runs per nine innings. Guardians starter Tanner Bibee has stark home/road splits: a 2.76 ERA and 0.7 home runs per nine at home versus a 5.37 ERA and over 1.8 home runs per nine on the road. He faces a Royals offense averaging just three runs per game at home—worst in the league.
Picks: Royals Moneyline -125 and Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap with Bibee vs. Bubic: Royals -143 and Total 7.9)
