MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, July 3.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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12:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Eury Pérez has struggled since coming off the injured list, posting a 6.19 ERA with 5.6 walks per nine innings. Twins starter David Festa hasn’t fared much better, with a 5.40 ERA, 1.5 home runs allowed, and 3.7 walks per nine. Both teams have also struggled in the bullpen—Minnesota ranks 23rd in ERA at 4.34, while Miami is just ahead at 22nd with a 4.33 ERA.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -110 and Over 8.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Twins -132 and Total 8.7)
3:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is likely due for some positive regression from his 5.56 ERA, given his 3.84 FIP, with just one home run and 2.1 walks per nine innings allowed. Astros starter Brandon Walter has impressed with a 3.34 ERA and just two walks allowed across 29 2/3 innings. He’s supported by a bullpen that ranks third in the league with a 3.29 ERA.
Pick: Astros Run Line -1.5 -120 and Under 11.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Astros -1.5 -142 and Total 10.7)
7:15 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Atlanta Braves
Angels starter José Soriano owns a 3.99 ERA, but his 3.34 FIP suggests he’s pitched better than the surface numbers show. He’s done a great job limiting mistakes, allowing just 0.3 home runs per nine innings. However, he’s backed by an Angels offense that ranks 27th in on-base percentage. The Braves, 24th in runs per game (4.0), counter with Bryce Elder, who has a 5.82 ERA and has given up four or more runs in each of his last three starts. Atlanta’s bullpen has been solid, though, ranking sixth in ERA since May 1 at 3.50.
Pick: Angels Moneyline +123 and Under 9 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Angels +111 and Total 8.8)
10:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starter Bryan Woo brings a strong 2.93 ERA into the matchup, along with just 1.5 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Royals offense that ranks last in the league at 3.3 runs per game. Royals starter Seth Lugo owns a 2.74 ERA, but his 4.18 FIP, along with 1.2 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine, suggests some regression may be coming.
Pick: Mariners Run Line -1.5 +150 and Over 7 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -1.5 +112 and Total 7.2)
