MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, July 9.
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1:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Rays starting pitcher Zack Littell owns a 3.50 ERA overall this season, but his two home runs allowed per nine innings and 5.06 fielding independent point toward negative regression. The Tigers, meanwhile, rank second in the American League in offense with over five runs per game. Tigers starting pitcher Reese Olson owns a 2.89 ERA on the season, but this is just his second start since May 14, and his 3.4 walks per nine innings could lead to an early exit.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.8)
3:45 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo has a deceiving 4.44 ERA, as his 2.77 fielding independent suggests positive regression. He’s allowing just 0.6 home runs while recording 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Giants starter Justin Verlander holds a 4.84 ERA with a 4.27 FIP and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s backed by a bullpen with a league-best 2.92 ERA.
Picks: Giants Moneyline +120 and Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Giants +109, Total: 7.4)
7:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara is having a rough 2025 season, posting a 7.01 ERA with 12 runs allowed across his last two starts. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.17. Reds starter Andrew Abbott has been dominant, with a 2.15 ERA and one or zero earned runs allowed in 12 of his 15 starts.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -135 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -174)
Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox
Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela owns a 6.57 ERA, allowing 13.8 hits per nine innings, and is backed by a bullpen whose 4.64 ERA ranks 26th in MLB. Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito owns a 3.66 ERA overall, though that jumps to 5.83 at home. He’s supported by a lineup that ranks first in the American League in scoring.
Picks: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 -140 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -1.5 -149, Total: 9.7)
7:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starter David Festa has a 5.48 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Cubs lineup that leads MLB with nearly 5.5 runs per game. Since May 1, the Cubs also own the league’s best bullpen ERA at 2.47. Cubs starter Cade Horton has a 4.15 ERA with one home run allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -107 (Greg’s Handicap: -131)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kansas City Royals
Both offenses rank at the bottom of the league—Pirates average 2.9 runs per game on the road (last in MLB), and the Royals average just three runs per game at home (also last). Royals starter Kris Bubic has a 2.36 ERA with 9.3 strikeouts and 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. Pirates starter Bailey Falter owns a 3.69 ERA, allowing 1.2 home runs per nine innings, and has given up three or fewer runs in 11 of his past 12 starts.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.1)
7:45 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore has a 3.11 ERA and a 3.01 FIP, with 0.9 home runs allowed and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starter Andre Pallante owns a 4.10 ERA with just six strikeouts per nine innings, but he’s allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his past 10 starts.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.9)
8:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
Guardians starter Slade Cecconi has a 3.56 ERA and has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his past five starts. However, he’s giving up 1.7 home runs per nine innings and holds a 4.69 fielding independent. Astros starter Brandon Walter has a 4.15 ERA and is also vulnerable to hard contact, allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
9:38 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Rangers starter Kumar Rocker has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five starts but still owns a 5.80 ERA overall. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks fourth in the league in home runs per at-bat. Angels starter Kyle Hendricks has a 4.69 ERA and takes on a Rangers lineup averaging just 3.8 runs per game—25th in MLB.
Picks: Angels Moneyline +115 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Angels -137, Total: 9.3)
9:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Dylan Cease’s 3.40 FIP indicates that his 4.64 ERA should improve, though he’s still walking 3.3 batters per nine innings. Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has struggled with a 5.42 ERA and 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s supported by a lineup that ranks fourth in scoring with 5.1 runs per game, but their bullpen ranks 28th in ERA at 5.04.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
