MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, June 10.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has massive career home and road splits, posting a lifetime 4.10 ERA at home with just over 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, compared to a 5.04 road ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara looks like a shell of his former Cy Young-winning self, with a 7.89 ERA, 1.3 home runs, and 4.7 walks per nine innings, and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.54.
Picks: Pirates Moneyline -120 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -156 and Total 8.6)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Slade Cecconi has a 4.87 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but has allowed six total home runs in four starts, leading to a 6.12 fielding independent. He’s supported by an offense averaging just 3.6 runs per game at home—28th in the league. Reds starter Andrew Abbott owns a 2.18 ERA with 9.9 strikeouts and one home run per nine innings, and his ERA improves to 2.05 on the road.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +100 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -116)
7:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore has been stellar with a 2.87 ERA and 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but he’s backed by a bullpen with a 5.81 ERA, the worst in the National League. Mets starter Griffin Canning has a 2.90 ERA but might be due for regression with a 3.78 fielding independent and four walks per nine innings. He faces a Nationals lineup that ranks ninth in runs per game on the road with over 4.7.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito has struggled, posting a 6.42 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings across seven starts. Rays starter Ryan Pepiot owns a 3.20 ERA, but a 4.34 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs per nine innings and a career-low 7.6 strikeouts per nine. He faces a Red Sox offense that is fourth in home run production, averaging over 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.6)
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Yankees starter Max Fried has been outstanding with a 1.78 ERA, just 0.6 home runs, and two walks per nine innings. He faces a Royals lineup that ranks last in home scoring with just 3.1 runs per game. Royals starter Noah Cameron has only 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings, but has given up just three runs in five starts. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 10th in ERA at 3.44.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.6)
8:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. is striking out 12.2 batters per nine innings but owns a 4.44 ERA due to command issues, walking 4.4 per nine. White Sox starter Shane Smith seems due for regression from his 2.45 ERA, allowing 3.6 walks per nine innings with a 3.52 fielding independent. The White Sox bullpen has a 4.40 ERA, ranking 23rd in the league.
Picks: Astros -1.5 Run Line +115 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -1.5 -109 and Total 8.1)
8:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Giants starter Kyle Harrison has a 4.34 ERA in four starts, but a 3.55 fielding independent with 9.4 strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings. He’s supported by a bullpen whose 2.32 ERA leads the league by over half a run. Rockies starter Carson Palmquist has been hit hard with an 8.50 ERA and two home runs per nine innings in his first four starts, though the Rockies bullpen holds a respectable 4.29 ERA.
Pick: Under 11.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 10.8)
9:40 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Note: Mariners pitching change from original matchup; this is Greg’s handicap in light of the change from Bryan Woo to Logan Evans.
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt has had a rough go of things recently, allowing 14 runs, 13 of which have been earned, in his past two starts with only getting a combined nine outs and overall for the season owns a 5.51 ERA overall this season while Mariners starting pitcher Logan Evans is back up at the big league level after posting a 2.83 ERA in his first six career starts. and is backed up by the better bullpen with the Mariners 13th in bullpen ERA at a 3.74 while the Diamondbacks 5.28 ERA ranks 27th.
Picks: Mariners Moneyline +114 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Mariners -108 and Total 9.4)
