MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, June 11.
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1:05 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo is on a historically bad two-start stretch, having allowed a combined 20 runs in 5 2/3 innings. Prior to this, he was generating Cy Young Award hype with a 2.15 ERA and had allowed three runs or fewer in each of his first 11 starts of the season. Cubs starting pitcher Ben Brown owns a 5.37 ERA but is getting 11 strikeouts per nine innings and has allowed a combined 16 runs in his past four starts.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -144)
2:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Braves have struggled on the road this season, entering Tuesday with an 11-23 away record. Starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed at least four total runs in three of his past four starts. Brewers starter Chad Patrick has pitched much better than his 3-5 record indicates, posting a 2.84 ERA with just 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Braves lineup averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which ranks 20th in the league.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline +122 (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers +114)
3:40 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Mariners starter Bryan Woo owns a 3.07 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 1.3 walks allowed per nine innings. He’s backed by a better bullpen—Mariners rank 17th in bullpen ERA at 3.85, while the Diamondbacks sit 27th with a 5.32 ERA. Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled, posting a 6.70 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -109 (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -129)
6:35 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tigers starter Casey Mize might be due for some regression from his 2.91 ERA, as he carries a 4.08 fielding independent and allows 1.3 home runs per nine innings. Orioles starter Zach Eflin has a 4.47 ERA and a 5.06 fielding independent with just six strikeouts and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s backed by a lineup that ranks 25th in scoring with just over 3.8 runs per game, while the Tigers are third in road scoring with over 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -110 (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -124)
7:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Nationals starter Jake Irvin has allowed a lot of contact this season, posting a 4.02 ERA and 4.50 fielding independent with just 5.7 strikeouts and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks last in the NL with a 5.81 ERA. Mets starter David Peterson has a 2.80 ERA and just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 11th in road scoring with over 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starter Zack Littell has a 3.68 ERA, but his 5.04 fielding independent is a concern, with 5.8 strikeouts and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. The Red Sox average 5.3 runs per game at home, which ranks fourth in MLB. Red Sox starter Walker Buehler has a 5.18 ERA and gives up 1.8 home runs per nine innings. He faces a Rays lineup that averages 4.5 runs per game, ranking 11th.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline -106 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -133, Total 9.3)
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starter Kris Bubic owns a 1.43 ERA this season and has allowed just three runs across his last six starts. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has a league-average 4.04 ERA with 9.2 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings. The Yankees bullpen ranks 16th with a 3.83 ERA, while the Royals are 10th at 3.44.
Picks: Royals Moneyline +106 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -115, Total 7.8)
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Rangers starter Jack Leiter has allowed just seven runs across his past five starts, sporting a 3.48 ERA, but is backed by a lineup that ranks 28th in road scoring with just 3.1 runs per game. Twins starter David Festa is coming off a poor outing where he allowed eight runs in Sacramento against the Athletics but had given up just two earned runs across his first three starts. He’s supported by a bullpen with a 3.32 ERA, sixth-best in MLB.
Picks: Twins Moneyline -126 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Twins -159, Total 8.3)
8:10 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
White Sox starter Sean Burke owns a 4.03 ERA, but his 5.17 fielding independent is concerning. He’s only getting 6.7 strikeouts and issuing 4.3 walks per nine innings and is backed by the lowest-scoring lineup in the American League at 2.9 runs per game. Astros starter Ryan Gusto has a 4.78 ERA with a 4.39 fielding independent and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings, backed by a bullpen that ranks ninth with a 3.39 ERA.
Pick: Astros Run Line -1.5 +120 (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -1.5 -114)
