MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, June 13.
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2:20 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
As great as Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes has been—posting a 1.88 ERA with only 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings—the Pirates are just 6-8 in his starts. Much of that is due to the offense, which ranks 29th in scoring with under 3.3 runs per game. The Cubs, meanwhile, lead the league with nearly 5.6 runs per game and should feast on the wind blowing out late in the game. Cubs starter Cade Horton owns a 4.11 ERA with only 2.3 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Cubs Moneyline -110 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -127, Total 7.7)
6:45 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starter Ranger Suárez is locked in, allowing only six earned runs across his past six starts. He’s walked just two batters per nine innings and surrendered only two home runs over 39 2/3 innings. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has a 3.87 ERA on the season, which climbs to 4.35 on the road. He’s allowed at least three runs in six of his last nine starts.
Picks: Phillies Moneyline -125 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -154, Total 8.3)
7:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Mets
Mets starter Clay Holmes owns a 2.95 ERA with one home run allowed per nine innings. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks second in the league with a 2.86 ERA. Rays starter Taj Bradley has a 4.58 ERA, allowing 1.2 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He faces a Mets lineup that ranks eighth in the league with over 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Mets Run Line +135 (Greg’s Handicap: Mets -1.5 +103)
7:15 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
The Rockies are last in MLB in road scoring with just 2.5 runs per game and send German Márquez to the mound. He has a 7.00 ERA with 5.9 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings. Braves starter Bryce Elder owns a 4.08 ERA and has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts.
Pick: Braves Run Line -1.5 -135 (Greg’s Handicap: Braves -158)
8:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Twins starter Chris Paddack has allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts and three or fewer in all 11. However, he appears due for regression with a 2.25 ERA during that span but a fielding independent over a run higher and just 6.8 strikeouts per nine. Astros rookie Colton Gordon owns a 5.11 ERA through his first five career starts.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6)
Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
The Royals are averaging fewer than 3.1 runs per game at home—lowest in the league—and face Luis Severino, who has the league’s most drastic home/road splits. Severino owns a 7.10 ERA at home, but just a 0.87 ERA on the road with no home runs allowed over 31 innings away from home. Royals starter Michael Wacha owns a 3.01 ERA, allowing 0.8 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has a strong 2.69 ERA but a 3.90 fielding independent, with a career-low 9.1 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings. Cardinals starter Erick Fedde also appears due for regression from his 3.54 ERA, sporting a 4.32 FIP with 5.6 strikeouts and four walks per nine. The Cardinals bullpen ranks 18th in ERA at 4.01, while the Brewers bullpen ranks 21st at 4.41.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2)
