MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, June 29.
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12:05 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Logan Allen owns a 4.25 ERA with four walks per nine innings and is backed by a lineup that averages 3.6 runs per game at home, which ranks 27th in the league. Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore has a 3.96 ERA but a 2.98 fielding independent, allowing just 0.7 home runs and 1.3 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline +107 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -103, Total 8.1)
1:35 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suárez has been dominant since giving up seven runs in his first start of the season, allowing just nine total runs (eight earned) across his last nine starts with a 1.17 ERA, completing at least six innings in each. Braves starter Spencer Strider has recorded 29 strikeouts over his past three starts (17 total innings) while allowing only four earned runs. However, the Braves lineup entered Saturday ranked 20th in runs per game at just four.
Picks: Phillies +118 and Under 8.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies +104, Total 8.2)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Rays starter Taj Bradley has a 4.57 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings on the season, but he’s been better on the road, posting a 3.32 ERA and less than one home run allowed per nine. Orioles starter Dean Kremer owns a 4.60 ERA and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA (4.46), while the Rays bullpen ERA of 3.75 ranks 14th.
Picks: Rays Moneyline +100 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -107, Total 9.2)
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Mets starter Frankie Montas struggled in minor league rehab starts, but threw five scoreless innings in his first MLB start of the season against Atlanta. He faces a Pirates lineup averaging just 3.3 runs per game, last in the National League. Pirates starter Mike Burrows has a 4.45 ERA overall, but has allowed just seven runs in his last five appearances.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Heading into Saturday, the Red Sox were averaging just 2.8 runs per game in 10 games since trading away Rafael Devers. Blue Jays starter Eric Lauer owns a 2.21 ERA, allowing 1.1 home runs and tallying 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Red Sox starter Walker Buehler has a 6.29 ERA and 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, but that improves to a 3.31 ERA and 1.1 HR/9 at home.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline +105 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -102, Total 8.9)
2:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starter Chad Patrick has allowed 4+ runs in each of his last three games, but still owns a 3.72 ERA with nine strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings. He faces a Rockies lineup averaging just three runs per game on the road, with the league’s lowest road on-base percentage. The Brewers offense has one of the biggest home/road splits in baseball, averaging just under four runs at home compared to nearly 5.7 away. Rockies pitcher Germán Márquez holds a 5.79 ERA and allows 11.9 hits per nine innings.
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (-125) and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 -137, Total 8.3)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kansas City Royals
The Royals rank last in home scoring, averaging under three runs per game. Dodgers bulk reliever Justin Wrobleski has a 4.91 ERA but a 3.76 FIP, and has been excellent out of the bullpen with a 1.96 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. Royals starter Kris Bubic owns a 2.18 ERA and allows just 0.4 home runs per nine innings.
Picks: Dodgers Moneyline -106 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -127, Total 8.8)
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Astros starter Framber Valdez owns a 2.88 ERA and has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his past nine starts. However, he’ll face a Cubs lineup that ranks second in road scoring at nearly 5.6 runs per game. Cubs starter Jameson Taillon owns a 4.47 ERA and allows 2.1 home runs per nine, which increases to a 5.57 ERA and 2.6 HR/9 on the road.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2)
