MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, June 30.
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6:35 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Padres starting pitcher Matt Waldron is making his first MLB start of the season. He had a 4.91 ERA last year with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed and is supported by a bullpen that ranks fifth in the league in ERA at 3.36. Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has a 2.45 ERA with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings overall this season and has allowed just two earned runs in his four starts since coming off the paternity list.
Pick: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.4)
6:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Despite the Pirates’ big series on offense against the Mets, the team is still last in the National League in scoring with under 3.5 runs per game. They look to starting pitcher Andrew Heaney for a solid outing. He owns a 4.48 ERA with 14 earned runs allowed across his past two starts, but has performed much better at home with a 2.95 ERA and 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed. Cardinals starting pitcher Erick Fedde owns a 4.11 ERA with just 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, which improves to a 3.00 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings away from home.
Picks: Cardinals Moneyline -120 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -136 and Total 8.1)
7:35 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has a 2.45 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings. Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez owns a 3.56 ERA with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but is giving up 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings. He’s backed up by an Athletics bullpen that ranks last in the league with a 5.87 ERA.
Picks: Rays Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rays Run Line -1.5 -117 and Total 8.7)
8:05 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher Patrick Corbin owns a 4.24 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed, but that improves to a 3.66 ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings at home. Orioles starter Trevor Rogers has a 1.62 ERA in his three starts this season, but after posting ERAs above 4.00 in each of the past three seasons and struggling at the minor league level earlier this year, his success may be a byproduct of a small sample size.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -103 (Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -127)
9:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Giants starter Logan Webb owns massive home and road splits throughout his career, posting a 2.62 ERA at home with just 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed, compared to a 4.04 ERA on the road with 0.8 home runs per nine. He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks third in the league in scoring with over 5.2 runs per game, but they also have a bullpen that ranks 28th in the league with a 5.31 ERA. Arizona sends Ryne Nelson to the mound, who owns a 3.71 ERA with 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
