MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, June 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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12:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
The Rockies are last in the league in runs per game on the road at fewer than 2.5 and entered Tuesday 4–28 away from Coors Field. They send Kyle Freeland to the mound, who looks due for some positive regression from his 5.72 ERA, supported by a 3.68 fielding independent, 1.9 walks, and one home run allowed per nine innings. Marlins starter Cal Quantrill is trending in the right direction, with a 5.84 ERA overall but three or fewer runs allowed in each of his past five starts and a 4.48 fielding independent.
Pick: Marlins Run Line -1.5 +170 (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -1.5 -126)
6:40 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starter Mike Burrows has struggled in his first two big-league starts, allowing eight runs in 8 2/3 innings, but posted a 2.53 ERA in the minors. He’s backed by a lineup that ranks last in the National League in home scoring at 3.4 runs per game. Astros starter Ryan Gusto owns a 4.65 ERA but generates 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings and has a bullpen behind him that ranks 10th in ERA at 3.53.
Pick: Astros vs. Pirates Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.4)
6:45 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore owns a 3.16 ERA and a 2.65 fielding independent pitching with 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings—both signs of positive regression. Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has a 3.08 ERA and 3.45 FIP with 9.4 strikeouts per nine but sees his ERA rise to 3.73 away from home. The Nationals’ offense is heating up, ranking sixth in runs per game in May.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +115 (Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -101)
7:07 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Phillies starter Mick Abel makes his second MLB start after tossing six shutout innings against Pittsburgh in his debut. He’s posted a 2.21 ERA at Triple-A this season. Blue Jays starter José Berríos has been underwhelming with a 3.86 ERA, allowing 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine. Oddly, his ERA jumps to 4.43 at home—opposite of his typical career splits.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -105 (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -127)
7:35 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rangers starter Kumar Rocker is making his first appearance since April 23 and brings an 8.10 ERA into the outing, with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. He has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in three of his five starts this year. The Rangers’ lineup ranks 26th in road scoring at 3.15 runs per game. Rays starter Shane Baz owns a 4.92 ERA but is supported by a bullpen that ranks sixth in ERA at 3.24.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -125 (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -156)
9:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starter Emerson Hancock carries a 5.64 ERA, but two bad outings skew the numbers—he’s allowed three runs or fewer in seven of nine starts. Orioles starter Cade Povich holds a 5.29 ERA, allowing 1.6 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings, and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 5.32.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -126 (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -164)
