MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, March 27.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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4:05 PM Eastern
Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
While Garrett Crochet’s 2.69 fielding-independent pitching (FIP) with 12.9 strikeouts and just two walks per nine innings last season ranked among the best in baseball, he pitched four innings or fewer in each of his last 13 starts, posting a 4.84 ERA in that span. He now faces a Rangers lineup that added Joc Pederson, who belted 23 home runs with a .393 on-base percentage last season, and Jake Burger, who hit 29 home runs with the Miami Marlins.
Pick: Rangers +102 Moneyline (Greg’s Handicapped Moneyline: Rangers -124)
4:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
While Clay Holmes posted a 0.93 ERA in Spring Training, this is his first start since 2018 after spending the past few years in the Yankees’ bullpen. Meanwhile, Framber Valdez had a 2.53 ERA in home starts last season and has kept his home run rate at 0.9 per nine innings or lower for four straight seasons. The Mets are also without catcher Francisco Alvarez, who is expected to miss the first six to eight weeks of the season. Even if the Mets reach closer Edwin DÃaz, his velocity was significantly down in Spring Training.
Pick: Astros -125 (Greg’s Handicapped Moneyline: Astros -148)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
The Cleveland Guardians lack power bats, with José RamÃrez and Carlos Santana being the only two players on the roster who hit more than 14 home runs last season. They now face Royals starter Cole Ragans, who owns a 3.00 ERA and 2.85 FIP since joining Kansas City in the middle of the 2023 season. While the Royals’ offense struggled after the All-Star Break, the addition of Jonathan India should provide Bobby Witt Jr. with additional protection.
Pick: Royals -124 (Greg’s Handicapped Moneyline: Royals -152)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Yusei Kikuchi finished the 2024 season strong, posting a 2.70 ERA with 11.4 strikeouts and just 2.1 walks per nine innings over his final 10 starts. He now faces a White Sox lineup that ranked dead last in scoring last season, averaging just 3.13 runs per game—no other team scored fewer than 3.73 runs per game. Though the Angels have Mike Trout back, their offense has plenty of holes as well, ranking third-worst in runs per game last season at 3.93.
Pick: Angels vs. White Sox Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.2 Runs)
10:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Most starting pitchers will be limited to around 75 pitches in their first start of the season, but the Cubs have an advantage here, as Justin Steele already made his first start of the season in Tokyo against the Dodgers. This should allow him to go deeper into the game than most pitchers on Thursday. On the other side, Zac Gallen has been dominant at home, posting a 3.36 ERA with just five home runs allowed in 83 innings in Arizona last season. He has also recorded a FIP of 3.38 or lower in each of the past three seasons.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2 Runs)
