MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, March 28.
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7:07 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
While the Orioles put 12 runs on the board on Opening Day, facing Kevin Gausman presents a tougher challenge. Gausman has posted a 3.45 ERA in his three seasons with the Blue Jays, along with a 3.05 fielding-independent pitching (FIP) mark, 10.1 strikeouts, and just 2.3 walks per nine innings. Veteran Charlie Morton benefits from a well-rested Orioles bullpen, thanks to their lopsided win yesterday. Morton has been a steady presence in the league for years, consistently generating more than nine strikeouts per nine innings since 2016. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranked just 23rd in runs per game last season.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1)
7:10 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
Although the Pirates plated four runs on Opening Day, they managed only four hits and are coming off a season in which they scored the third-fewest runs per game in the National League. Meanwhile, the Marlins finished last in the NL in runs per game. Marlins starter Connor Gillispie has appeared in only three major league games but was a highly regarded prospect in both the Orioles’ and Guardians’ farm systems. Mitch Keller, on the other hand, tied his career-best last season by issuing just 2.5 walks per nine innings while posting a 4.25 ERA and a 4.08 FIP.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 6.9)
8:05 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Jack Leiter impressed in Spring Training with a 3.48 ERA but struggled in 2023, posting an 8.83 ERA and a 5.66 FIP while battling command issues, allowing 4.3 walks per nine innings. Tanner Houck, backed by a Red Sox lineup that added talent this offseason to a core that ranked fourth in the AL in runs per game, had a strong 2.89 road ERA last season. However, he faded in the second half, recording a 4.23 ERA with 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings after the All-Star break, compared to a 2.56 ERA with 8.6 strikeouts per nine before the break.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.1)
8:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
The Mets spent big to add slugger Juan Soto to an already strong lineup that ranked seventh in runs per game last season. They should be able to get to Astros starter Hunter Brown early, as he has posted a walks-per-nine rate of at least 3.1 in every MLB season and struggled with command in Spring Training. Mets starter Tylor Megill will face a Houston lineup that has ranked in the top three in fewest strikeouts per at-bat every season since 2017. Since the start of 2023, Megill has a 4.45 ERA with 4.1 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
9:40 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
The addition of Jeffrey Springs should bolster the Athletics’ pitching staff, but injuries have limited him to just 10 starts over the past two seasons. He struggled with command and hard contact in Spring Training. Mariners starter Luis Castillo gets to face an Athletics lineup that ranked 25th in runs per game on the road last season. While Castillo’s velocity has dipped slightly over the past year, his command has never been better. A full season of Victor Robles in the Mariners’ lineup should provide more run support.
Pick: Mariners -145 (Greg’s Handicapped Moneyline: -196)
10:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are plenty familiar with Jack Flaherty, having acquired him for the back half of the 2024 season. In his 15 starts for them, including the postseason, he posted a 4.66 ERA while allowing over 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Now, he faces the league’s second-ranked offense in runs per game. On the mound for the Dodgers is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been stellar since joining the team, recording a 2.94 ERA and a 2.54 FIP. Having already made a start in Tokyo last week, he should be able to provide more length than most starters at this point in the season.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (+120) and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Dodgers -1.5: -112, Total: 7.7)
