MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, March 31.
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2:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Elvin RodrÃguez will make his pitching debut for the Milwaukee Brewers. He has a career 9.55 ERA in eight appearances between 2022 and 2023 for the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays. Kris Bubic had a 2.67 ERA out of the bullpen last season, but as a starter, he holds a 4.99 ERA with a 9-27 record.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.9)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
MartÃn Pérez makes his starting pitching debut for the Chicago White Sox and has been at his best early in the season, posting a 3.00 ERA or lower in March and April in each of the past three years. Chris Paddack has been unlucky over the past three seasons with the Twins, posting a 4.82 ERA despite a much lower 3.67 fielding independent pitching (FIP). He has averaged 8.3 strikeouts to 1.9 walks per nine innings and now faces a White Sox lineup that scored more than half a run per game fewer than any other offense in baseball last season.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
2:35 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Cade Povich had a rough rookie season in 2024 but performed well in Baltimore, posting a 3.60 ERA at home compared to a 7.89 ERA on the road. He has the luxury of a strong bullpen behind him, featuring Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano. Sean Newcomb has had a long and winding road back to being a starting pitcher, last serving as a consistent starter in 2018 with the Atlanta Braves. However, he showed promise in Spring Training, allowing just one earned run over 14 1/3 innings.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
3:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Germán Márquez has made only five starts over the past two seasons due to injury, but he has historically been solid away from Coors Field, posting a 3.83 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez excelled at limiting home runs last season, posting a 3.32 ERA and 3.00 FIP with just 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Rockies lineup that finished last in the National League in runs per game last season.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
6:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Brady Singer makes his debut for Cincinnati and has been remarkably consistent, allowing between 1.0 and 1.1 home runs per nine innings in each of his five MLB seasons while averaging 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Kumar Rocker has some of the most electrifying stuff in baseball but struggles with control. In Spring Training, he recorded over 13 strikeouts per nine innings but also walked over six batters per nine innings. He faces a Cincinnati lineup coming off a rough start to the season against the San Francisco Giants, while the Rangers will be without Josh Jung, who landed on the injured list.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.7)
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
David Peterson was one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball last season, posting a 2.90 ERA despite a 3.67 FIP. It was the first time his ERA dropped below 3.44, even as his strikeout rate declined to 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings after averaging at least 9.3 in the previous three seasons. Cal Quantrill, now on his third team in as many seasons, saw his ERA balloon to 4.98 last year with the Colorado Rockies. However, in his last fully healthy season in 2022, he posted a 3.38 ERA with the Cleveland Guardians while allowing just one home run and 2.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Marlins +165 Moneyline (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins +136)
7:45 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tyler Anderson was one of the more fortunate pitchers in baseball last year, recording a 3.81 ERA despite a 4.66 FIP, issuing 3.7 walks to only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas led all qualifying National League pitchers last season with just 1.3 walks per nine innings. He should have an even bigger edge than usual, as the Angels arrived in St. Louis later than expected due to a rain delay in Chicago against the White Sox on Sunday.
Pick: Cardinals -130 Moneyline (Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -153)
8:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros
Though Ronel Blanco’s 4.15 FIP and 2.80 ERA last season suggest potential regression in 2025, he should still fare well against a Giants lineup that relied heavily on platoon splits in recent years. With the offseason firing of manager Gabe Kapler, San Francisco is shifting its approach. Jordan Hicks will start for the Giants for the second straight season. Last year, he was moved to the bullpen midseason, posting a 4.37 FIP with a career-low 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.9 walks per nine.
Pick: Astros -120 Moneyline (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -165)
10:05 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Oakland Athletics
The Athletics will play their home games this season at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, the home of the AAA Sacramento River Cats. The Pacific Coast League, in which this ballpark resides, had an average ERA of 5.25 last season, making it a hitter-friendly environment. Cubs starter Ben Brown had a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP last season but may be on a pitch count, as he began this year pitching out of the bullpen in the Tokyo Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Meanwhile, Joey Estes had a 5.01 ERA and allowed 1.6 home runs per nine innings for the Athletics last season.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.2)
