MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, May 1.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
12:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has posted a 3.60 ERA with 12 strikeouts per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen with a 3.46 ERA entering Wednesday’s doubleheader. The Cardinals, meanwhile, rank 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.80. Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore has been a completely different pitcher at home versus on the road, posting a lifetime 3.51 ERA at home with 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings, compared to a 5.86 ERA and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -136)
1:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Ben Lively has been up and down this season with a 4.40 ERA and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings but is supported by a bullpen that has had the lowest ERA in the American League since the 2024 season began. Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson has been about as league-average as it gets, posting a 4.07 ERA and a matching 4.07 FIP, along with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline -108 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -126 and Total 7.9)
2:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starter Sean Burke has struggled this season, posting a 6.00 ERA and 6.52 FIP with 2.3 home runs and 3.7 walks allowed per nine innings. Brewers starter Chad Patrick, on the other hand, has a 2.47 ERA overall, which improves to 1.88 as a starter this season. He’ll face a White Sox lineup that entered Wednesday averaging the fewest runs per game at home—just 3.4.
Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +100 (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers Run Line -1.5 -124)
6:45 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starter Taijuan Walker has bounced back from a rough 2024 season with a 2.78 ERA. However, he’s averaging four walks per nine innings and has a 4.05 FIP, suggesting possible regression. Nationals starter Brad Lord has been thrust into the rotation, leaving behind a bullpen that ranks last in MLB with a 7.47 ERA. Lord himself has struggled with a 4.67 ERA and 4.7 walks allowed per nine innings.
Picks: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +115 and Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies Run Line -1.5 -111 and Total 9.6)
9:38 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are 1-5 in games started by Yusei Kikuchi this season, as his lack of command has been a major issue. He holds a 4.32 ERA, 5.2 walks per nine innings, and a 4.67 FIP. The Angels bullpen isn’t much help either, with a 5.04 ERA entering Wednesday—the worst in the American League. Tigers starter Casey Mize has allowed one or zero runs in four of his five starts this season, leading to a 2.12 ERA. Detroit backs him with a bullpen ranked fourth in ERA at 2.79.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -110 (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -128)
9:45 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starter Justin Verlander owns a subpar 4.99 ERA this season, but his 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings mark an improvement from the past two years. His 4.12 FIP suggests positive regression is likely. The Rockies rank dead last in road offense, averaging just 2.1 runs per game. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has a 5.93 ERA and has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts. Colorado is on pace for a 27-135 season after a 5-25 start.
Pick: Giants Run Line -1.5 -105 (Greg’s Handicap: Giants Run Line -1.5 -142)
