MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, May 12.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Jackson Jobe does have his deficiencies, with a 4.88 ERA, 1.6 home runs, and 4.9 walks per nine innings, along with a 5.65 fielding independent. However, he is supported by the league’s second-best bullpen in ERA at 2.72. Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck owns a 6.10 ERA, allowing 1.7 home runs and three walks per nine innings.
Picks: Tigers -109 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -142, Total 7.9)
7:15 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin is fortunate that his ERA isn’t higher than 3.92, as he’s recording just 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.7 home runs, contributing to a 5.12 fielding independent. Braves starter Grant Holmes has a 4.58 ERA and is giving up 1.8 home runs per nine innings, but is backed by a much stronger bullpen. The Nationals bullpen ERA is a league-worst 7.13, while the Braves’ bullpen ranks 12th at 3.62.
Pick: Braves Run Line -1.5 +120 (Greg’s Handicap: Braves -1.5 -107)
8:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers
The Rockies are just 7-33, with 30 of those 33 losses coming by multiple runs. Rookie Chase Dollander takes the mound with a 7.71 ERA, 2.6 home runs, and 4.2 walks per nine innings. Rangers starter Tyler Mahle owns a 1.48 ERA and has allowed only two home runs across 42 2/3 innings this season. He faces a Rockies lineup averaging just 2.2 runs per game on the road—the lowest in the league.
Pick: Rangers Run Line -1.5 -135 (Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -1.5 -154)
9:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres
Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi has been shaky this season, with a 3.83 ERA and a 4.61 fielding independent, allowing 1.3 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine innings. He’s backed by an Angels bullpen with a 6.99 ERA—the worst in the American League. Padres starter Michael King has a 2.22 ERA and a 3.21 fielding independent, supported by a lineup averaging just under 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.7)
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starter Emerson Hancock has rebounded from a rough first outing—six runs in 2/3 of an inning—by allowing three runs or fewer in four straight starts. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has a 4.79 ERA this season, but historically performs better on the road. He’s backed by a bullpen ranked 13th in ERA at 3.63, while the Mariners bullpen ranks 10th with a 3.54 ERA.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.9)
9:45 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starter Justin Verlander’s swing-and-miss stuff isn’t what it used to be, posting a 4.50 ERA with a 4.45 fielding independent, 7.5 strikeouts, 3.2 walks, and 1.3 home runs per nine innings. Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has a 4.09 ERA this season but has struggled on the road, with a 5.31 ERA away from home. By contrast, he owns a 3.25 ERA and allows less than one home run per nine innings at home.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
