MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, May 13.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott might be due for regression with a 2.25 ERA, but he’s issuing 4.5 walks per nine innings and has a 3.66 fielding independent pitching (FIP). However, the White Sox lineup may not be strong enough to cause that regression, averaging just 2.85 runs per game on the road — 28th in the league. The Reds offense has surprisingly been worse at home, scoring 4.3 runs per game in Cincinnati compared to over five on the road. Meanwhile, White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon pitches to a lot of contact with just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings but still holds a respectable 4.09 ERA.
Picks: Reds Run Line -1.5 +100 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -1.5 -121, Total 8.7)
6:45 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starter Cade Povich has struggled this season with a 5.55 ERA and a 5.05 FIP, allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Twins starter Simeon Woods-Richardson enters off his best stretch yet, having allowed three runs or fewer in each of his past five starts — two runs or fewer in four of them — while carrying a 4.01 ERA overall.
Picks: Twins Moneyline +118 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Twins -118, Total 9.3)
7:10 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
Mets starter Kodai Senga is likely due for some regression with a 1.14 ERA and a 3.01 FIP, along with 8.1 strikeouts and four walks per nine innings. Though the Pirates offense ranks last in scoring (3.1 runs per game, and just 2.7 on the road), they could be due for some positive regression. Pirates starter Mitch Keller has a 4.40 ERA but a better 3.69 FIP, allowing just three home runs in 45 innings over eight starts.
Picks: Mets Run Line -1.5 -110 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Mets -1.5 -122, Total 7.9)
7:15 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Former Braves pitcher Mike Soroka enters Tuesday with a rough 7.20 ERA over two starts. Across all 27 pitching appearances since the start of 2024, he’s 0-12 with a 5.02 ERA, allowing 1.4 home runs and 4.7 walks per nine innings. Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach owns a 3.61 ERA and a 3.37 FIP, with just 1.7 walks and one home run allowed per nine innings. The Nationals also came into Monday with the league’s worst bullpen ERA at 7.13.
Picks: Braves Run Line -1.5 -105 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Braves -1.5 -126, Total 8.8)
8:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers
The Rockies’ 2.2 runs per game on the road entering Monday was the lowest in MLB, while the Rangers’ 3.4 runs per game overall ranks 26th. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland owns a 6.41 ERA but has a much better 3.19 FIP, allowing just 1.6 walks and 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Rangers starter Jack Leiter also has a FIP lower than his ERA, posting a 5.09 ERA but a 4.25 FIP, with two home runs allowed across five starts.
Picks: Rangers Run Line -1.5 -105 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -1.5 -123, Total 8.1)
9:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starter Dylan Cease has a 4.91 ERA, but a strong 3.36 FIP, with 10.7 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Angels starter Jose Soriano has a 4.00 ERA with seven strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine, but is backed by a struggling lineup that ranks 25th in runs per game (under 3.7), and a bullpen with the worst ERA in the American League at 6.94.
Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 +115 (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -1.5 -116)
9:45 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt owns a 3.28 ERA, but his 4.21 FIP raises some concerns, especially with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. Giants starter Robbie Ray also has underlying red flags — despite a 2.84 ERA, his 4.07 FIP and 4.7 walks per nine innings suggest control issues and potential regression.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2)
