MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, May 15.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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12:15 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver has a 2.76 ERA but a 3.59 FIP, along with 4.1 walks per nine innings. Nationals starter Trevor Williams, meanwhile, should see some positive regression from his 5.88 ERA, supported by a 3.97 FIP, just 1.1 home runs, and 2.6 walks per nine innings. However, he’s backed by a bullpen that ranks last in the league with a 7.08 ERA.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.1)
12:40 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds pitcher Nick Martinez has a 4.23 ERA this season, but underlying metrics suggest improvement, with a 3.35 FIP, just 2.2 walks, and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. On the other side, White Sox starter Bryse Wilson has a 4.88 ERA and a troubling 5.81 FIP, with 4.2 walks and 1.6 home runs per nine innings, and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.43.
Pick: Reds Run Line -1.5 -110 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -1.5 -127)
8:05 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Both starting pitchers in this matchup have been in top form. Rangers ace Jacob deGrom is returning to peak performance, allowing just six runs across his last five starts while striking out 9.5 per nine innings. Astros starter Hunter Brown owns a 1.48 ERA with just one home run allowed in eight starts this season and has surrendered only four runs across his last six starts. He’ll face a Rangers lineup that ranks 28th in scoring, averaging 3.4 runs per game.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 6.9)
10:10 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Athletics starter Osvaldo Bido has struggled this season, carrying a 4.75 ERA and a 5.91 FIP while allowing 1.9 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. However, he’s backed by an Oakland lineup that entered Wednesday averaging nearly 4.6 runs per game on the road.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.6)
