MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, May 16.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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2:20 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
While the wind will be blowing out heavily at Wrigley Field on Friday, the White Sox might not hold up their end of the total, scoring fewer than three runs per game on the road this season—28th in the league. White Sox starter Shane Smith boasts a 2.08 ERA with just one home run allowed in 43 1/3 innings. Cubs rookie Cade Horton makes his first career start after four innings out of the bullpen earlier this year.
Pick: White Sox vs. Cubs Under 11.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 10.2)
6:40 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Guardians starter Tanner Bibee enters with a 3.80 ERA but is allowing 1.8 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings, contributing to a 5.53 fielding independent. Reds starter Brady Singer’s 4.97 ERA is due for positive regression, supported by a 4.26 FIP. He’s been much better at home (2.82 ERA) than on the road (7.45 ERA).
Pick: Reds Moneyline +110 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -131)
6:45 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
After a shaky season debut, Phillies starter Ranger Suárez went seven scoreless innings in his most recent outing. He now faces a Pirates lineup averaging fewer than 3.1 runs per game—last in the league. Pirates starter Andrew Heaney has seen his strikeouts dip to 7.1 per nine innings but owns a 3.15 ERA while allowing just one home run per nine.
Pick: Pirates vs. Phillies Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
7:05 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Mets starter Tylor Megill is having a strong season, posting a 3.10 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and just 0.7 home runs per nine. Yankees starter Carlos Rodón owns a 3.29 ERA with 11 K/9. Both bullpens are solid: the Mets’ 2.98 bullpen ERA ranks fourth, while the Yankees’ 3.47 ERA ranks ninth.
Pick: Mets vs. Yankees Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
7:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starter Cole Ragans is due for positive regression, owning a 4.20 ERA with a stellar 2.22 FIP, 14.4 strikeouts, and just 0.9 home runs allowed per nine. Cardinals starter Andre Pallante is trending the opposite direction with a 4.36 ERA, 1.5 home runs, and 3.5 walks per nine—leading to a 5.06 FIP. The bullpen edge also goes to the Royals (3.11 ERA, 6th) over the Cardinals (3.89 ERA, 16th).
Pick: Royals Moneyline -150 (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -178)
8:05 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. struggled in his first two starts, allowing seven runs in four innings. However, he now faces a Rangers lineup that ranks 26th in runs per game. Rangers ace Nathan Eovaldi has been excellent with a 1.76 ERA, but the Astros hold the bullpen advantage—ranking 2nd with a 2.69 ERA compared to the Rangers’ 14th-ranked 3.73 ERA.
Pick: Astros Moneyline +163 (Greg’s Handicap: Astros +133)
8:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starter Chad Patrick has been consistent, posting a 2.83 ERA and allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings as a starter (excluding a bullpen outing vs. the Yankees). Twins starter Joe Ryan struggles with hard contact on the road, holding a career 3.60 ERA at home with under 1.3 HR/9, compared to a 4.05 road ERA with over 1.6 HR/9.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -104 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -111 and Total 8.4)
