MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, May 17.
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New York Mets vs. New York Yankees 1:05 PM Eastern
Yankees starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt has had some early season struggles with a 4.73 ERA, but appears to be rounding into form with three runs or fewer allowed in each of his past three starts and has done his best work at home with a 7.20 road ERA compared to a 3.24 ERA at home with just one home run allowed in 16 2/3 innings at Yankee Stadium this season. On the other side, Mets starting pitcher Griffin Canning is experiencing a career renaissance with a 2.36 ERA this season, with nine strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed this season and both starters are backed up by solid bullpens with the Yankees 3.47 ERA ninth in the league and the Mets 2.98 ERA fourth among bullpens.
Pick: New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.7)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles 4:05 PM Eastern
Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Gibson has had a miserable start to the season, posting a 13.11 ERA with 5.4 home runs and 4.6 walks per nine innings through three starts while Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin owns a 4.00 ERA, but a 5.17 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed. While both bullpens have been shaky with a 4.95 ERA for the Orioles and a 6.75 ERA for the Nationals, the lack of offense from the Orioles has been a surprise with the team averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which ranks 25th in the league.
Picks: Nationals Moneyline +140 and Total Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Nationals +121 and total 9.1)
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox 7:15 PM Eastern
It has been an up and down first three starts for Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, registering a 5.51 ERA with his 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings down from his career 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings rate while Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has been shaky to begin the season as well, posting a 4.14 ERA with a 5.17 fielding independent while allowing 1.8 home runs and 4.7 walks per nine innings, but comes in having allowed three earned runs of fewer in five of his past seven starts.
Pick: Braves Moneyline +107 (Greg’s Handicap Braves Moneyline -113)
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 8:10 PM Eastern
The Colorado Rockies offense simply can’t score away from home, averaging 2.2 runs per game with a .189 batting average on the road this season while starting pitcher German Marquez should be due in for a bit of positive regression, posting an 8.27 ERA but 4.71 fielding independent with just four home runs allowed across his eight starts while Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen should see positive regression on his 4.59 ERA with allowing just 1.1 home runs per nine innings and is generating 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.7)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 9:10 Eastern
Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw is making his first start of the season after posting a 4.50 ERA and a career-low 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings in seven starts in 2024 while Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson’s 2.58 ERA appears unsustainable, supplying a 4.57 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings allowed, and is backed by a bullpen who owns the worst ERA in baseball at 6.97.
Picks: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -105 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Dodgers -1.5 -123 and Total 9.6)
