MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, May 2.
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6:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene has done a great job reducing his walk rate, allowing just 1.5 walks per nine innings this season after issuing at least 3.4 walks per nine in each of his first three big league seasons. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. On the other side, Nationals starter Mitchell Parker appears due for regression given the high amount of contact he’s allowing. Despite a 2.65 ERA, his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) is 3.80, and he’s managed only 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Additionally, the Nationals bullpen entered Thursday with a league-worst 7.41 ERA.
Pick: Reds Run Line -1.5 +130 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -1.5 +105)
6:45 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starter Jesús Luzardo has been stellar through six starts, posting a 1.73 ERA and a 2.00 FIP while allowing just one home run over 36 1/3 innings. Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly had one disastrous outing against the Yankees, allowing nine runs, which has skewed his numbers. However, he has allowed two runs or fewer in four straight starts. He owns a 4.41 ERA, but his 3.3 walks and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings are concerning.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
7:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Rays pitcher Ryan Pepiot has been notably better on the road since joining Tampa Bay in 2024, posting a 3.22 ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings away from home, compared to a 4.07 ERA and over 1.5 home runs per nine at home. Yankees starter Max Fried has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all six of his starts this season, but his sparkling 1.19 ERA could regress—his FIP sits at 2.97, and he has just 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
Picks: Rays Moneyline +187 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rays +158, Total 7.9)
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Royals starter Michael Wacha has been better than his 1-3 record suggests, carrying a 3.38 ERA and a 2.98 FIP while allowing only one home run over 32 innings across six starts. Orioles starter Dean Kremer faces a Royals offense that ranks last in MLB in scoring, averaging just over 3.1 runs per game. Kremer owns a 7.04 ERA with 2.1 home runs allowed per nine innings, though he allowed only one run over 5 1/3 innings in his lone home start.
Picks: Royals Moneyline +116 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -102, Total 8.7)
7:07 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Both starters appear improved this season. Chris Bassitt has given the Blue Jays a 2.62 ERA and a 2.35 FIP, with only two home runs allowed in six starts and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Guardians starter Logan Allen has posted a 4.21 ERA and an identical FIP, significantly reducing hard contact—allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings after giving up 2.0 per nine last year.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.9)
7:15 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto has dominated since coming over from Japan, posting a 1.07 ERA with 11.4 strikeouts and just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. Braves starter Grant Holmes has been far more effective at home, where he holds a 2.57 ERA and has given up just one home run in 42 innings, compared to a 4.80 ERA with over 1.8 home runs per nine on the road. He’s backed by a lineup that ranks 16th in scoring at just over 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.4)
10:15 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
The Rockies entered Thursday averaging a league-worst 2.1 runs per game at home. Starter Antonio Senzatela has allowed at least four runs in three of his past four starts and has been plagued by the long ball, giving up 2.1 home runs per nine innings with just four strikeouts per nine. Giants starter Robbie Ray has led the team to wins in all six of his starts, posting a 3.73 ERA, though his 5.5 walks per nine innings is a red flag.
Pick: Giants Run Line -1.5 -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Giants Run Line -1.5 -148)
