MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, May 20.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Reds pitcher Nick Martinez has a 3.66 ERA this season, but that number could improve further, as his fielding independent pitching (FIP) sits at 3.18. He’s allowing just 1.9 walks and 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Pirates starter Bailey Falter has a 4.02 ERA with a less encouraging 4.56 FIP, issuing 3.4 walks and striking out 6.5 per nine. He’s backed by a Pirates offense that’s averaging just over three runs per game—worst in the league.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -118 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -142)
6:45 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox
Mets starter Clay Holmes has been solid this season, sporting a 3.14 ERA and allowing just 0.6 home runs per nine innings. Red Sox starting pitcher Walker Buehler owns a 4.26 ERA overall this season, but enters in his best form with three runs or fewer allowed in each of his past four starts. The Mets bullpen ranks fifth in ERA at 3.05, while Boston’s 3.72 bullpen ERA sits 12th.
Pick: Mets vs. Red Sox Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.4)
7:40 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starter Chris Paddack has a 4.05 ERA this season and comes in on a hot streak, having allowed just six runs over his past five starts. Guardians starter Gavin Williams owns a 4.29 ERA, giving up 1.5 home runs and 5.1 walks per nine innings. He’s backed by a bullpen ranked 18th with a 4.06 ERA, while Minnesota’s bullpen ERA of 2.87 ranks third in MLB.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -108 (Greg’s Handicap: Twins -132)
10:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Angels starter Kyle Hendricks has a 5.18 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. That inflates to a 6.38 ERA on the road. A’s rookie Gunnar Hoglund owns a 3.78 ERA through his first three career starts, but a 5.13 FIP, having allowed four home runs in 16 2/3 innings. The Angels bullpen ranks dead last with a 7.06 ERA, while the Athletics bullpen isn’t much better at 5.82, ranking 28th.
Pick: Angels vs. Athletics Over 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 10.7)
10:10 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson has mostly worked in long relief this season, posting a 5.13 ERA over 10 appearances (just one start), with a 3.70 FIP and a career-best 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been dominant with a 2.12 ERA and 10.4 strikeouts per nine.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.7)
