MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, May 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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1:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has allowed just five total runs over his past seven starts, posting a 1.43 ERA on the season with only two home runs surrendered across 56 2/3 innings. Rays starter Taj Bradley owns a 4.80 ERA with a career-low 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings but is backed by a bullpen that ranks 10th in ERA at 3.45. The Astros bullpen, meanwhile, holds a 2.71 ERA—second-best in the league.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.9)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Brewers starting pitcher Chad Patrick has posted a 3.04 ERA as a starter this season, allowing just 0.6 home runs per nine innings. Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano has a 3.08 ERA but a sky-high 4.84 fielding independent, with just five strikeouts per nine innings and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine. He’s supported by a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 4.90.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -118 (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -138)
2:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starter Shane Smith carries a 2.05 ERA, but with a 3.16 FIP, three walks per nine innings, and the benefit of seven of his 18 allowed runs being unearned. Mariners starter Logan Evans has a 2.57 ERA with just two home runs allowed over 21 innings in four starts. He’s backed by a Mariners offense averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road, ranking fifth in MLB.
Pick: Mariners Run Line -1.5 +110 (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -1.5 -101)
3:30 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starter Chris Paddack owns a 4.05 ERA overall but is in peak form lately, allowing just six runs across his last five starts. Guardians starter Gavin Williams has a 4.29 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 5.1 walks per nine innings, supported by a bullpen ranked 18th in ERA at 4.06. The Twins bullpen ranks third with a 2.87 ERA.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -111 (Greg’s Handicap: Twins -132)
7:05 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Rangers ace Jacob deGrom is looking like his old self, allowing just five runs in his last five starts and owning a 2.29 ERA this season. Yankees starter Ryan Yarbrough holds a 3.70 ERA, but a concerning 4.95 FIP with 1.5 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Rangers Moneyline +100 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -132 and Total 8.2)
