MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, May 31.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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4:05 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher Patrick Corbin owns a 3.75 ERA this season, but his 4.99 fielding independent pitching (FIP) suggests possible regression. He’s allowed 1.7 home runs per nine innings with just 7.1 strikeouts and three walks per nine. Cardinals starter Sonny Gray holds a 4.06 ERA, which jumps to 6.75 on the road, having given up five home runs in just 14 2/3 road innings this season.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Projected Total: 8.4)
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
White Sox starter Davis Martin has a 3.45 ERA, allowing just one home run and 2.3 walks per nine innings. Orioles starter Dean Kremer owns a 5.02 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine allowed and is backed by a bullpen with a 5.38 ERA, ranking 26th in the league.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline +170 (Greg’s Handicap: +151)
4:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins
Giants starter Robbie Ray carries a 2.56 ERA, but his FIP is higher at 3.20, with 3.8 walks per nine innings. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera has a 4.73 ERA (5.33 at home), giving up 1.4 home runs per nine and supported by a bullpen ranked 25th in ERA at 4.80.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.4)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Slade Cecconi has allowed four runs in 11 innings through his first two starts this season, following a rough 6.66 ERA campaign with the Diamondbacks last year. Angels starter Kyle Hendricks holds a 5.23 ERA (6.37 on the road), and is backed by an Angels bullpen with the league’s worst ERA at 6.17.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.8)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Rays starter Zack Littell has a 3.97 ERA but a less promising 5.12 FIP, with just 5.8 strikeouts and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces an Astros lineup averaging 4.7 runs per game at home (10th in MLB). Astros starter Colton Gordon brings a 5.56 ERA through three career starts but owns a much better 3.55 FIP, with 8.6 strikeouts and just 1.2 walks per nine.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -115 (Greg’s Handicap: -134)
7:15 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starter Bryce Miller has struggled with a 5.22 ERA and makes his first start since May 11. However, he’s historically been stronger at home with a 2.92 ERA and just 0.8 home runs per nine innings compared to 4.66 and over 1.3 on the road. Twins starter Bailey Ober owns a 3.41 ERA overall, but that rises to 4.67 on the road, with a drop in strikeouts per nine from 8.1 at home to six away. Minnesota also averages just 3.5 runs per game on the road, ranking 25th in the league.
Picks: Mariners Moneyline -104 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -137 and Total 7.6)
