MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, May 5.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
The Dodgers will likely go with some sort of mix-and-match bullpen game, with Ben Casparius—who has a 2.93 ERA this season—expected to pitch multiple innings. While Casparius doesn’t have the name recognition of Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara, he’s been far more effective. Alcantara owns an 8.31 ERA, has allowed at least four runs in three of his past four starts, and is walking 5.6 batters per nine innings this season.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +100 (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -132)
7:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has a 2.70 ERA through six starts this season, though his 3.78 fielding-independent pitching (FIP) and 3.5 walks per nine suggest some regression is due. Giants starter Landen Roupp has a similar FIP at 3.86, but a 5.10 ERA due to allowing 1.2 home runs per nine innings. He should benefit from the wind blowing in on Monday. The Giants’ bullpen also holds a strong 2.47 ERA (2nd in MLB), while the Cubs’ bullpen ERA sits at 4.53 (23rd).
Pick: Giants Moneyline +132 (Greg’s Handicap: Giants +118)
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starter Cole Ragans’ 4.40 ERA seems due for positive regression given his 2.73 FIP and impressive 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a White Sox offense that ranks 25th, scoring just 3.6 runs per game. On the other side, White Sox starter Shane Smith owns a 2.23 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts. He faces a Royals lineup that ranks 28th with 3.2 runs per game.
Pick: Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.4)
Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Both starting pitchers are due for regression. Brewers starter Tobias Myers has a 3.10 ERA since being called up in 2024, but a 4.04 FIP with 1.2 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings. Astros starter Ronel Blanco has a 3.13 ERA, but is allowing 3.8 walks per nine with a 4.27 FIP. He’ll face a Brewers lineup that ranks 10th in scoring with over 4.7 runs per game.
Picks: Brewers Moneyline -110 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -119 and Total 8.2)
7:45 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has yet to allow a home run through 29 innings in six starts, but his lack of deception—just 5.3 strikeouts per nine—has led to a 4.66 ERA. He’s supported by a bullpen that ranks 25th with a 4.73 ERA. Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski owns a 6.52 ERA but has a much better 3.52 FIP. However, his short outings (no longer than five innings this season) increase exposure to a bullpen with a 4.26 ERA, ranking 19th.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
10:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics
A’s starter Luis Severino holds a solid 3.30 ERA overall, but his home splits are rough—5.11 ERA in Sacramento versus a 0.95 ERA on the road. He’s also allowed four home runs in just 24 2/3 home innings. The Mariners lead the AL in road scoring with nearly 5.7 runs per game. Seattle’s starter Bryce Miller sports a 3.52 ERA with only one home run allowed in 30 2/3 innings but struggles with command, issuing 5.7 walks per nine.
Picks: Mariners Moneyline -112 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -124 and Total 9.2)
