MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, May 6.
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6:45 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito allowed three runs in six innings in his first start since the 2023 season, when he had a 4.88 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He faces a Rangers offense that ranks last in the American League in scoring, with just 3.2 runs per game. Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi is no stranger to Fenway Park, having spent five seasons with the Red Sox. He owns a lifetime 4.19 ERA at Fenway—quite a jump from his current 2.11 ERA with just 0.6 home runs and 0.6 walks per nine innings this season.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline +103 (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -109)
7:15 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Braves starter Chris Sale has pitched better than his 4.84 ERA would suggest, though he’s allowed 1.3 home runs per nine innings this season. His 3.33 fielding independent pitching (FIP) indicates he’s not quite the same guy as last year. Reds starter Andrew Abbott’s 5.4 walks per nine innings are a concern, but he’s also recorded 10.9 strikeouts per nine and a 2.84 ERA. He’s backed by a Reds bullpen that entered Monday ranked ninth in the league in ERA.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +195 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds +154)
7:40 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Both offenses entered this series struggling—Kansas City ranks 27th in scoring with 3.4 runs per game, while Chicago is averaging just 3.3 runs per game on the road, 24th in the league. Royals starter Seth Lugo’s seven strikeouts per nine and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine are mildly concerning, but he’s managed a 3.07 ERA and is backed by a bullpen ranked seventh in ERA at 3.02. White Sox starter Sean Burke is coming off six scoreless innings against the Brewers.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.7)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
Colin Rea is off to a hot start in 2025 with a 1.46 ERA over four starts and seven total appearances, but his 4.40 ERA and 4.82 FIP with 1.6 home runs per nine innings over the past two seasons with Milwaukee suggest it’s unsustainable. Giants starter Justin Verlander has rounded into form, allowing two runs or fewer in each of his past three starts. He holds a 4.38 ERA and is supported by a bullpen ranked second in the league with a 2.38 ERA, while the Cubs’ bullpen ERA sits at 4.41, 21st overall.
Pick: Giants Moneyline +128 (Greg’s Handicap: Giants +118)
8:40 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have dramatic home/road offensive splits, averaging just under 4.3 runs per game and a .234 batting average at home, compared to 2.2 runs and a .189 average on the road. The Tigers, meanwhile, are second in the American League in road scoring with over 5.2 runs per game. They’ll face Rockies starter Chase Dollander, who has a 6.49 ERA with 2.9 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Over 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 10.3)
10:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
The Mariners lead the American League in road scoring, averaging nearly 5.7 runs per game entering Monday. They’ll face A’s starter Jeffrey Springs, who has a 4.98 ERA and has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts. Mariners starter Emerson Hancock owns a 6.62 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings and will take on an Athletics lineup that ranks eighth in the league in home runs per at-bat.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 10.3)
