MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, May 7.
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1:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester has had difficulty finding the strike zone this season, posting a 5.79 ERA with 6.6 strikeouts and 6.2 walks per nine innings. Astros starter Framber Valdez has also had his struggles, recording a 4.39 ERA with 3.3 walks per nine innings, and now faces a Brewers lineup ranked 10th in scoring with over 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
1:15 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals entered Tuesday ranked eighth in the league with nearly five runs per game at home. They face Pirates starter Mitch Keller, who holds a 4.38 ERA and a career-low 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starter Sonny Gray has struggled recently, allowing at least three runs in three straight starts and posting a 4.12 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Picks: Cardinals Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -1.5 +111, Total: 7.9)
3:45 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Gunnar Hoglund makes his second career MLB start for the Athletics after allowing just one run over six innings in his debut against the Marlins. He now faces a Mariners lineup that leads the AL with nearly 5.5 runs per game on the road. Seattle’s Bryan Woo boasts a 2.58 ERA and just 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he’s pitching in a Sacramento ballpark that entered Tuesday with the over hitting in 10 of 16 games.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 10.2)
6:45 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
While Tyler Mahle’s 1.19 ERA may not be sustainable, he’s been reliable with a 2.48 FIP and no home runs allowed through seven starts. Red Sox starter Tanner Houck had one disastrous outing against the Rays (12 runs allowed) but has been strong at home with a 2.13 ERA at Fenway Park.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
7:05 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Cristopher Sanchez has been stellar at home with a 2.44 ERA and just 0.7 home runs per nine innings, but has struggled on the road with a 4.84 ERA since the start of 2024. Rays starter Shane Baz enters with a 3.86 ERA and a 3.63 FIP, along with 9.5 strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings. Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranked 7th in ERA entering Tuesday (2.96), while the Phillies’ bullpen ranked 25th (4.71).
Pick: Rays Moneyline +117 (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -102)
San Diego Padres vs. New York Yankees
Padres starter Dylan Cease appears to be pitching better than his 5.64 ERA suggests, supported by a 3.33 FIP, 10.4 strikeouts, and just 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Yankees starter Max Fried is off to a stellar start, allowing two or fewer earned runs in all seven starts, including just two total in his past five outings. However, his 7.9 K/9 is his lowest since 2017, and all the contact allowed could catch up to him.
Pick: Padres Moneyline +155 (Greg’s Handicap: Padres +146)
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
The White Sox entered Tuesday ranked 26th in road scoring, averaging just over 3.1 runs per game. Royals starter Michael Wacha has been steady with a 3.52 ERA and 3.25 FIP, allowing just two home runs across his first seven starts. Jonathan Cannon owns a 4.26 ERA with four walks per nine innings, but will face a Royals lineup that ranks 27th in overall runs per game (just over 3.4).
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.7)
8:40 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies
Jackson Jobe has posted a 3.38 ERA this season for the Tigers, but his 4.94 FIP with 6.8 strikeouts and 5.3 walks per nine innings raises concern. Rockies starter Chase Dollander has struggled, logging a 6.49 ERA with 2.9 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Tigers Run Line -1.5 -105 and Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -1.5 -144, Total: 10.3)
