MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, May 8.
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1:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
Orioles starting pitcher Dean Kremer has been a disaster this season, posting a 5.73 ERA with just 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings and allowing 1.7 home runs per nine. Twins starter Joe Ryan has allowed zero or one run in four of his past five starts, but his 3.43 fielding-independent pitching (FIP) and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings suggest some regression may be coming. Both teams have struggled in the bullpen, with the Orioles ranking 24th in ERA at 4.66, while the Twins’ bullpen ranks 14th with a 3.75 ERA.
Picks: Twins Run Line -1.5 +130 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Twins -1.5 +135 and Total 8.6)
3:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies (Game One)
Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize has a solid 2.70 ERA this season, though his 4.47 FIP raises some concerns. He’s posted 6.6 strikeouts and allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Fortunately for Mize, he’s backed by a Tigers lineup that ranks second in the American League in scoring, averaging over 5.2 runs per game. He faces Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, who has a 5.70 ERA and has allowed at least three runs (earned or unearned) in five straight starts.
Picks: Tigers Run Line -1.5 -110 and Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -1.5 -150 and Over 10.2 Runs)
7:05 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Phillies starter Jesús Luzardo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, sporting a 1.94 ERA and allowing just one home run in 41 1/3 innings. Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has struggled, posting a 4.23 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings, though he is backed by a strong bullpen that entered Wednesday ranked seventh in ERA at 3.23.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2 Runs)
7:15 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo is tracking for a career-low 3.27 ERA, but his 4.10 FIP and career-low 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings hint at possible regression. Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach has surrendered at least three total runs in four consecutive starts and will face a Reds lineup that ranks fifth in road scoring at 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3 Runs)
9:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lead MLB in runs per game since the start of the 2024 season but face a tall task in Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has a 0.90 ERA and has allowed just one earned run over his last five starts. While that level of dominance may not be sustainable, Yamamoto has been exceptional. Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt holds a 3.79 ERA and a 4.42 FIP with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th with a 4.66 ERA.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.7 Runs)
