MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, September 1.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene owns a 2.81 ERA this season with 11 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings, with his ERA dipping to 1.80 at home. Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has a 4.14 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings, with his ERA ballooning to 6.10 on the road with over 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -128 (Greg’s Handicap Reds -149)
2:15 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals
A bit of a body clock game for the Athletics as they go from Sacramento to playing a game at 11:15 AM PT. They face a Cardinals starting pitcher in Sonny Gray that has done his best work at home this season, posting a 3.57 ERA with 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a 5.24 road ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. Athletics starting pitcher Luis Morales has a 1.19 ERA in his small sample size of 22 2/3 innings, and his 3.08 fielding independent with four walks per nine innings are a sign of regression. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 4.80.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -135 (Greg’s Handicap Cardinals -157)
4:05 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea has pitched to a lot of contact with only 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings, posting a 4.23 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings. He should benefit from the wind blowing in on Monday at Wrigley Field. Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider has struggled this season, posting a 4.95 ERA with five runs or more allowed in three of his past four starts. Despite some post-All Star Break struggles at the plate, the Cubs overall this season are still fifth in scoring with over 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -115 (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -133)
4:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Giants starting pitcher Kai-Wei Teng owns an 8.78 ERA with 6.1 walks per nine innings in his three appearances this season. Rockies starting pitcher Chase Dollander has a has a 6.55 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 4.5 walks per nine innings allowed this season. The majority of his struggles have come at home, posting a 9.88 ERA with 2.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is backed by up by a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA at 5.23.
Pick: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 11.8)
7:35 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz has struggled this season, posting a 5.19 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo has a 3.75 ERA, but enters Monday having allowed 14 runs across 13 innings in his past three starts. In road games, he has a 5.02 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Rays Moneyline +104 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rays -103 and Total 9.3)
8:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson has been very solid this season with a 3.53 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings allowed. The Rangers are averaging 5.3 runs per game since the beginning of the month of July, but are banged up with Corey Seager on the injured list. They are 19th in scoring with 4.3 runs per game this season. Starting pitcher Patrick Corbin has a 4.33 ERA for the season, but has struggled recently with three or more runs allowed in four of his past five starts. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks sixth in ERA at 3.59.
Pick: Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.9)
