MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, September 10.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
2:35 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher Merrill Kelly owns a 3.16 ERA this season between his time with Texas and the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing only 1.1 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that leads the league in road scoring with nearly 5.6 runs per game despite ranking 21st in the percentage of at-bats that result in a home run. Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has a 2.50 ERA, but his 3.56 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 3.5 walks per nine innings are signs that regression may be coming.
Picks: Rangers Moneyline +114 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rangers -108 and Total 8.1)
3:45 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starting pitcher Carson Seymour is making his third start of the season after beginning his MLB tenure in the bullpen. He’s coming off a road outing against the St. Louis Cardinals in which he allowed one run over five innings, posting a 4.25 ERA overall this year. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA at 3.32, while the Diamondbacks bullpen ranks 26th at 4.78. Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez, despite allowing just one run across his past two starts, has had a rough season with a 5.22 ERA, 1.4 home runs, and 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -109 (Greg’s Handicap Giants -137)
6:35 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pirates starter Paul Skenes is the odds-on favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award, boasting a 1.98 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts and 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. However, he’s supported by a lineup that ranks last in the league in runs scored (3.6 per game) and last in home runs. Orioles starter Tyler Wells is making just his second start of the season after allowing two runs in five innings in his season debut against the San Diego Padres.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.3)
6:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starter Eury Perez has been much better at home than on the road, posting a 2.25 ERA with no home runs allowed in 32 innings at home compared to 11 home runs allowed in 43 1/3 innings with a 6.44 ERA on the road. Nationals starter Jake Irvin has struggled to a 5.71 ERA with 1.9 home runs, 3.3 walks, and a 5.74 FIP. He’s backed by a bullpen that owns the league’s worst ERA at 5.35.
Pick: Marlins Run Line -1.5 +135 (Greg’s Handicap Marlins -1.5 +108)
7:07 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Astros starter Jason Alexander carries a 4.68 ERA this season but has been better since joining Houston with a 3.19 ERA. Still, he’s allowing 1.3 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings with a 4.45 FIP. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that leads the American League in home scoring with 5.3 runs per game. Blue Jays starter José Berríos has a 4.02 ERA with 1.3 home runs and three walks allowed per nine innings. He’ll take on an Astros lineup that ranks last in run production since the All-Star break, scoring fewer than four runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -130 (Greg’s Handicap Blue Jays -162)
10:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starter Blake Snell is coming off his first start of the season in which he allowed more than three runs. He owns a 3.19 ERA with 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings and faces a Rockies lineup that ranks last in both road on-base percentage and road scoring (2.9 runs per game). Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has a 5.10 ERA, though his FIP sits at 4.41, and his ERA drops to 4.56 on the road.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.1)
