MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, September 12.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
2:20 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago Cubs
The wind appears to be lightly blowing out toward first pitch before perhaps shifting to blow in at Wrigley Field toward the end of the game at around 5-7 miles per hour. Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz is hoping for as much help from the wind as possible, as he has a 4.94 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings this season. Cubs starting pitcher Matthew Boyd owns a 2.92 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.0 walks per nine innings, but only 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings, while being supported by a lineup that ranks eighth in the league in scoring with 4.9 runs per game.
Picks: Cubs Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -1.5 +108 and Total 9.3)
6:45 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are rolling the dice by giving Walker Buehler his first start since picking him up from the Boston Red Sox. He registered a 5.45 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings this season but has the support of a Phillies lineup that ranks second in the league in run scoring at home with 5.3 runs per game. Royals starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has had his share of issues, posting a 4.63 ERA with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. On the road, that number jumps to a 5.22 ERA with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s backed up by a lineup that ranks 28th in scoring at 3.8 runs per game.
Picks: Phillies Moneyline -125 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -155 and Total 9.3)
7:07 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers is on an amazing run, posting a 1.51 ERA overall this season and allowing two runs or fewer in 11 straight starts. However, his 2.39 fielding independent suggests regression is coming, and he has given up only three home runs in 95 2/3 innings despite recording just 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt owns a 3.97 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings. He’s supported by a lineup that leads the league with over 5.6 runs per game since the All-Star Break, though the bullpen has struggled, ranking 24th in ERA since July 1 at 4.67.
Pick: Orioles vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.6)
7:10 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil has done a nice job keeping the ball in the park, allowing only two home runs across seven starts and 35 1/3 innings. However, he appears due for regression from his 3.31 ERA, given his 7.6 strikeouts, 5.9 walks per nine innings, and 4.13 fielding independent. Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito has been solid over the past three months, with the Red Sox going 12–4 in his last 16 starts. Giolito has posted a 2.33 ERA with 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA since July 1 at 3.24. By contrast, the Yankees bullpen ERA of 5.77 in that span ranks 29th.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline +110 (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -104)
Detroit Tigers vs. Miami Marlins
It has been a lost season for Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara, who owns a 5.67 ERA with 3.1 walks and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA since July 1 at 4.53. The Tigers’ bullpen ERA in that span is slightly better at 4.37, ranking 19th. Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, meanwhile, has been good enough to be the odds-on favorite in the American League Cy Young race, posting a 2.10 ERA with a 7.94 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He is backed by a lineup that ranks seventh in run production at over 4.9 runs per game.
Picks: Tigers Run Line -1.5 -111 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers Run Line -1.5 -144 and Total 7.4)
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Tanner Bibee has had a rough season, registering a 4.69 ERA with career-worst marks of 7.8 strikeouts and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. He has allowed at least four runs in 10 of his past 12 starts. He faces a White Sox lineup that ranks second in the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.3 runs per game. Chicago starter Martín Pérez has been steadier, posting a 3.15 ERA with a 3.89 fielding independent, along with 7.7 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings.
Pick: White Sox vs. Guardians Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.5)
7:15 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves rookie Hurston Waldrep has impressed since being called up, allowing just two home runs with a 1.33 ERA in 40 2/3 innings across seven appearances. He faces an Astros lineup that ranks last in the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break at 3.9 runs per game. Houston’s starter is still TBD, but a piecemeal approach is expected, supported by a bullpen whose 3.73 ERA ranks ninth in MLB.
Pick: Astros vs. Braves Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.8)
8:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starter Quinn Priester has danced around contact all season to post a 3.25 ERA and might be due for regression, having allowed only five earned runs in his past four starts. His peripherals—2.9 walks and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings—point to a 4.19 fielding independent. Cardinals starter Andre Pallante has allowed at least four runs in eight of his past 11 starts, pushing his ERA to 5.26 this season. He faces a Brewers lineup that leads the National League in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.6 runs per game.
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 -106 and Total 8.7)
10:05 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Oakland Athletics
Reds starter Brady Singer owns a 3.98 ERA with 3.4 walks per nine innings this season, but he’s in good form, allowing one or zero runs in six of his past eight starts. Athletics starter J.T. Ginn has a 4.95 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. Most of his struggles have come at home, where he has a 6.64 ERA with over 2.7 home runs allowed per nine innings in Sacramento.
Picks: Reds Moneyline +102 and Over 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -138 and Total 10.2)
