MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, September 13.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
2:20 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago Cubs
While Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has put together a solid season with a 2.64 ERA, his 3.73 fielding independent pitching and reliance on contact with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings point toward regression. Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea is also pitching to contact, posting a 4.20 ERA with just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings, but he is supported by a lineup that ranks eighth in scoring with 4.9 runs per game on a day when the wind is expected to blow out.
Picks: Cubs Moneyline -112 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -116 and Total 9.8)
3:07 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer has struggled with hard contact this season, posting a 4.36 ERA with a 4.95 fielding independent mark and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano is also pitching to contact, averaging just six strikeouts per nine innings with a 4.51 ERA, 5.13 fielding independent, and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that leads the American League in home run production, averaging nearly 5.3 runs per game at home.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2)
4:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Miami Marlins
Tigers starter Charlie Morton has struggled, posting a 5.59 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine innings, but he is backed by a lineup that ranks seventh in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. The Marlins, meanwhile, came into the series tied for last in the National League in home scoring at just 3.9 runs per game. Miami starter Jason Junk has allowed only 0.7 home runs and 1.2 walks per nine innings this season, but he’s pitching to a lot of contact with 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings, leading to a 4.42 ERA. He has allowed at least three runs in eight straight starts, posting a 6.64 ERA over that stretch.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -128 (Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -146)
7:20 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
Astros starter Hunter Brown has been excellent, putting up a 2.25 ERA with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings and just 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Braves starter Bryce Elder has allowed only four earned runs across his past four starts, but overall has struggled badly this season with a 5.35 ERA, including a 6.44 mark at home while allowing nearly 4.4 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Astros Moneyline -125 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -152 and Total 8.3)
8:15 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Cardinals starter Sonny Gray has struggled on the road, posting a 4.45 ERA with 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings overall, which balloons to 5.24 ERA and 1.6 HR/9 on the road. Over his past 10 starts, Gray owns a 6.31 ERA with 2.1 home runs allowed per nine innings. Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski has allowed at least three runs in four of his five starts since returning from the injured list, posting a 4.06 ERA with 12.6 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings on the season. In this five-start stretch, however, his ERA sits at 6.23. He is supported by a lineup that leads the National League in scoring since the All-Star break with 5.6 runs per game.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3)
9:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starter Logan Webb has had an outstanding season with a 3.12 ERA, just 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, and a 2.64 fielding independent mark. He owns a career 2.77 ERA at home compared to 3.99 on the road. Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw is allowing more contact than ever, with a career-low 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings, but he’s limiting damage with 0.6 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 19th in ERA at 4.17, while the Giants’ bullpen is second-best at 3.28.
Pick: Giants Moneyline +109 (Greg’s Handicap: Giants -129)
10:05 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Athletics
Reds starter Hunter Greene has had a strong season, recording a 2.59 ERA with 11.3 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings. The Athletics turn to Luis Severino, who owns a 4.67 ERA but has been far worse at home with a 6.33 ERA in Sacramento. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 4.74.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -108 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -142)
