MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, September 14.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:35 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli has a 4.67 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but has an ERA drops to 1.10 in his three home starts this season. He faces a Pirates lineup that is last in the league in scoring with 3.6 runs per game, while Pirates starting pitcher Mike Burrows owns a 3.99 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.2 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Nationals lineup that entered the weekend averaging over 5.5 runs per game in September.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -106 (Greg’s Handicap Nationals -143)
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez enters Sunday in a big funk, having allowed at least four runs in six of his seven starts since August began, posting a 5.95 ERA in this span. He still has a 0.9 home runs per nine innings rate in this span and should return to his overall season form of a 3.42 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. Braves starting pitcher Joey Wentz has a 5.61 ERA across three teams this season, but is only allowing 1.2 home runs per nine innings as his 4.24 fielding independent points towards positive regression. That drops to a 4.76 ERA and 3.55 fielding independent in 11 appearances with Atlanta. Since July 1, the Braves bullpen is 27th in ERA at 5.04.
Picks: Astros Moneyline -132 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros -141 and Total 8.6)
Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean has allowed five total runs in his five starts this season, with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings and just one home run allowed in 31 2/3 innings. He faces a Rangers lineup that is dealing with plenty of injuries while ranking 18th in run production with 4.3 runs per game. They have Jacob Latz starting, who has a 2.91 ERA with 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings this season. His ERA drops to 2.73 in the starter’s role, with 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.9)
2:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Jose Quintana has experienced some regression recently with at least three runs allowed in each of his past three starts and might be in for even more as he owns a 3.88 ERA with just 6.1 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings and a 4.86 fielding independent. He is supported by a lineup that leads the National League in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 5.6 runs per game. They face Cardinals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, who is pitching to a lot of contact with his 4.84 ERA, getting only 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Mikolas sees that ERA shoot up to 6.54 away from home with nearly 2.4 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -1.5 -108 and Total 9.2)
4:05 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Athletics
Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has a career-low 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings this season, but also career-bests with 1.7 walks per nine innings and a 3.10 ERA. Athletics starting pitcher Luis Morales has dazzled in a smaller conference at sample size with a 2.73 ERA in seven appearances with 8.7 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -106 (Greg’s Handicap Reds -118)
4:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
While Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish has had a rough season with a 5.65 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings, he gets the luxury of facing a Rockies lineup that is last in run production away from home with 2.9 runs per game. Rockies starting pitcher German Marquez owns a 6.31 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings. The Padres are surprisingly 25th in the league in scoring with 4.2 runs per game and are 29th in home runs per at-bat.
Pick: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.9)
7:10 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet has been dominant this season with a 2.57 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings. He has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts. Crochet has to face a Yankees lineup that leads the league in runs per game and home runs. Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren owns a 4.22 ERA with 3.7 walks per nine innings allowed, with his ERA going up to 5.43 away from home. He is backed up by a Yankees bullpen that, since July 1, is 29th in ERA at 5.74.
Pick: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.7)
