MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today for Cubs vs. Pirates, Blue Jays vs. Rays, Reds vs. Cardinals, and Phillies vs. Dodgers.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Monday, September 15.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon has been effective since coming off the injured list, allowing just four runs across 15 1/3 innings in his three starts since the beginning of July. Overall, he has a 4.19 ERA with a 4.97 fielding independent pitching mark and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he faces a Pirates lineup that has the fewest home runs in the league and averages just 3.6 runs per game, also last in the league. Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has been magnificent both as a reliever and a starter, posting a 2.47 ERA with 0.3 home runs per nine innings, but he appears to be on a tight innings limit, going three innings or fewer in three of his past five appearances.
Picks: Cubs Moneyline -126 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -134 and Total 8.3)
7:35 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Blue Jays will give Trey Yesavage the start in his MLB debut after he rocketed through the minor leagues, pitching at four different levels with an overall 3.12 ERA and 14.7 strikeouts per nine innings. However, at the AAA level he struggled with control, giving up 5.6 walks per nine innings. The Rays listed their starter as “TBD” on Sunday night, but had Joe Boyle skip his start for AAA Durham, and he figures to factor in this one. Boyle has made 10 MLB appearances this season, posting a 5.40 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 5.2 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Rays Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.4)
7:45 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore has allowed at least three runs in seven of his eight starts since August began, though some of that damage has come from unearned runs. Positive regression could be on the way, as he doesn’t hurt himself much—he owns a 4.35 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a lineup that ranks last in run production since the All-Star Break, averaging just 3.75 runs per game. Reds starting pitcher Zack Littell has a 3.78 ERA despite allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings and holding a 4.94 fielding independent mark, but his excellent control—1.5 walks per nine innings—has helped his cause.
Picks: Cardinals Moneyline -118 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -124 and Total 8.3)
10:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Phillies’ offense has drastic home/road splits, ranking second in the league in scoring at home with 5.5 runs per game but just 21st on the road at a little over 4.2 runs per game. Dodgers starting pitcher Emmet Sheehan has been solid, posting a 3.32 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs per nine innings, and he’s backed by a lineup that leads the league in scoring at home with 5.6 runs per game. Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suárez has had a remarkable season, especially on the road, where he owns a 2.05 ERA. Overall, he carries a 2.77 ERA with 0.6 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline -129 (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -138)
