MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, September 2.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios has a 3.95 ERA this season but a 4.41 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings allowed. Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has a career-low 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings but a career-best 3.23 ERA with only 1.1 home runs and 1.7 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Reds Moneyline -110 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Reds -131 and Total 8.8)
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli owns a 5.11 ERA with 2.2 home runs per nine innings this season. Cavalli has pitched significantly better at home with no runs allowed in 11 1/3 innings across his appearances at home this season. His 2.1-inning start against the Yankees on the road, where he allowed seven earned runs and four home runs, has warped his numbers. Marlins starting pitcher Adam Mazur has allowed six runs in his 9 2/3 inning sample size this season. He is supported by a lineup that is 27th in the league in home runs per at-bat on offense.
Picks: Nationals Moneyline -108 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Nationals -130 and Total 9.3)
7:35 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has been steady this season with a 2.64 ERA while allowing 0.9 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings. Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo has a 2.95 ERA with 9.1 strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings allowed, with his ERA shooting up to 3.48 on the road this season. He is supported by a lineup that ranks second in the American League in road production with 4.9 runs per game.
Picks: Mariners Moneyline -105 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Mariners -115 and Total 8.6)
8:10 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Both starting pitchers enter with recent struggles as Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried has allowed at least four runs in six of his past eight starts, though he has a 3.06 ERA for the season with 0.7 home runs and 2.3 walks allowed per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez has allowed at least four runs in four of his past five starts, but has a 3.18 ERA for the season with 0.5 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings allowed. Valdez has been at his best at home with a 1.70 ERA and 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Astros Moneyline +103 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros -118 and Total 7.6)
8:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland has allowed all sorts of contact this season, posting a 5.23 ERA with 6.6 strikeouts and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. The team’s 5.25 bullpen ERA ranks 29th in the league. Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has a 3.16 ERA with 0.7 home runs allowed and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings this season. He has a full career of diminished effectiveness on the road with a lifetime 2.79 ERA at home compared to a lifetime 3.99 road ERA.
Pick: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Over 10.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 10.8)
